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Apple Inc iPhone Still Has Growth

Apple Inc iPhone Still Has Growth

Date Published: 7-15-2016

UPDATES
Research firm IDC has come out with its worldwide smartphone forecast and deep in the numbers we find forecast that show Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone sales increasing by nearly 50 million units by 2020.

STORY
In general, the press release is quite tepid on worldwide smartphone growth, predicting just a 3.1% growth in 2016. For context, 2015 growth hit 10.5% and 2014 growth hit 27.8%. There's a pretty clear saturation evolving in the market.

The slowing growth is in part due to longer upgrade cycles, something that Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) has explicitly discussed. Here are some more nuggets from that IDC report.

APPLE INC IPHONE FORECAST
The projection for the Apple Inc iPhone 2016 shipments is 226.8 million units, down from 232 million last year. IDC notes:

“
The expected decline of 2% year over year is a significant change from past years' growth and marks a pivotal moment for the company.

”

But, in that same dossier, IDC states "Apple can bring iPhone back to growth in 2017 and beyond supported by its early trade-in program as well as the lower cost iPhone SE."

Stretching the analysis out to 2020 we can see that IDC predicts a shrinking of market share for Apple Inc iPhone from 15.3% in 2016 down to 14.5%, but a closer look reveals some actual growth. That 227 million units predicted for the Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone unit sales in 2016 is forecast to hit 267.1 million units by 2020, or nearly an 18% rise. The contraction in 2016 is seen as temporary, although we do note that IDC has revised its original smartphone shipment forecasts, including those for the Apple Inc iPhone, down before.

APPLE INC IPHONE AND CHINA
While Apple Inc has had its recent troubles with China and what appears to be a growing combative relationship between the communist regime and the iPhone maker, IDC remains fairly bullish on the country at large for the iPhone. Here's another snippet from IDC:

“
[The iPhone] continues to make inroads in China with development in tier 1 cities and is actively trying to penetrate higher growth markets like India and Middle East. The larger screen iPhone 6 Plus and 6S Plus will continue to grow its share of all iPhones shipped, increasing from 26% in 2016 to 32% in 2020.

”

The mention of India for Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is a lightning rod given India's enormous growth in its smartphone market and the tiny Apple Inc iPhone footprint in the country. Outside of the IDC press release, here is some other data to consider with regard to Apple Inc and the growth opportunity that is India for the iPhone.

APPLE INC IPHONE AND INDIA
In a CML Pro dossier entitled "Apple Just Got Huge News From India" we discuss at length the changing government sentiment very much in favor of the Apple Inc iPhone. Without going into too much detail, here are a few snippets.

India will represent the second largest smartphone market to China as of 2017, overtaking the United States. Here’s the growth via Statista.

The Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone was reported to have 2% market share in India as of the end of 2015, but that footprint is popping higher. In fact, that market share has spiked to 5.8% in tier-I Indian cities. Here's the chart:

But this is just the tip of the iceberg. We direct you to CML Pro for the full research dossier on India, the changing political landscape, the new rules and the opening of the first Apple Inc stores in the country which lead to enormous growth, well above that forecast by IDC.

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Thanks for reading, friends. The author is long Apple shares in his personal account.