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The CML Close - Stocks rise, import and export prices fall, consumer expectations of inflation drop - 08-12-2022




Date Published:


Markets
Stocks rose, import and export prices fell more than estimates, and consumer expectations of inflation are dropping.

SPX 4,280.15 +72.88 (+1.73%)
NASD 13,047.19 +267.27 (+2.09%)
DJIA 33,761.05 +424.38 (+1.27%)
R2K 2,016.62 +41.36 (+2.09%)
VIX 19.53 -0.67 (-3.32%)
Oil 91.88 -2.46 (-2.61%)

• Import prices dropped 1.4% month-over-month versus expectations of a 1% drop; the first drop since December 2021.

• Consumer expectations are rising.

• Consumer inflation expectations are dropping.

• Fed leaders warn that inflation is still too hot.


Headlines of the Day
S&P 500 Rallies, Capping Fourth Straight Week of Gains
Stocks closed higher Friday, with the S&P 500 gaining for four weeks in a row. Signs that inflation has cooled have been a positive force for markets this week.

Fed’s Daly Sees Half-Point September Hike; No Inflation Victory
Inflation is cruel, creates indignity, SF Fed leader says. Interest-rate increases need to be data-dependent, she says.

This was a good week for inflation numbers, but whether it can last is the big question
Import prices fell more than expected and brought some some much-needed good news for consumers. That news followed reports earlier in the week that both wholesale and retail price increases abated for the month.

U.S. inflation outlook brightens as import prices drop, consumer sentiment rises
U.S. import prices fell for the first time in seven months in July, helped by a strong dollar and lower fuel and nonfuel costs, while consumers' one-year inflation outlook ebbed in August, the latest signs that price pressures may have peaked.

The Bursting Chinese Housing Bubble Compounds Beijing’s Economic Woes
China’s deflating property bubble is imperiling the world’s second-largest economy with effects that could ripple for years.

Economic Data Results for 8-12-2022
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Prel AUG
the University of Michigan long run inflation expectations came in at 3% in August of 2022, remaining within the 2.9-3.1% range seen in the past 11 months.

Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel AUG
Michigan Inflation Expectations in the United States decreased to 5 percent in August from 5.20 percent in July of 2022.

Michigan Consumer Expectations Prel AUG
The University of Michigan consumer expectations subindex for the US rose to 54.9 in August of 2022 from 47.3 in July and above market expectations of 48.4, preliminary estimates showed.

Import Prices YoY JUL
Import prices in the US fell by 1.4 percent from a month earlier in July of 2022, swinging from the upwardly revised 0.3 percent rise in the previous month and surpassing market expectations of a 1 percent drop. It was the first decline in import prices since December 2021.

Economic Data Due Tomorrow on 8-15-2022
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index AUG "

NAHB Housing Market Index AUG



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