The CML Close - Stocks drop, confidence drops, manufacturing dropped, and food supply chain improves- 06-28-2022
Stocks dropped after opening green as consumer confidence came in below estimates.
The market continues to behave as a bear, with large up and down swings.
• Home price increases slowed in April for the first time in months.
• An improving supply chain is bringing down grain prices.
• Manufacturing measures are declining.
• The CB Consumer Confidence dropped in June to 98.7 versus estimates of 100 and down from 103.2 in prior month which itself was revised down from 106.4.
Headlines of the Day
U.S. stock indexes were falling on Tuesday, after opening solidly in the green
Optimists believe that a bottom had been found after a brutal start to 2022, while pessimists dismiss the market’s recent gains as simply a bear-market rally with more pain ahead.
Home price increases slowed in April for the first time in months, S&P Case-Shiller says
Home price increases slowed ever so slightly in April, but it is the first potential sign of a cooling in prices.
Food Inflation Relief Is Within Sight as Crops and Crude Pull Back
Improving supply outlook is pushing down lofty grain prices
Angst Over US Inventory Pileups Is Belied by Still-Solid Sales
General stores’ stocks-sales ratio at odd with other retailers. Factories’ finished durable-goods inventory lowest since 2013.
US Profit Margin Estimates Are Too Optimistic, Goldman Strategists Say
&P 500 margins to fall next year regardless of recession: GS. Strategists say earnings risks not fully priced into stocks.
Economic Data Results for 6-28-2022
United States Retail Inventories Ex Autos
Retail inventories excluding autos in the United States increased 0.8 percent from a month earlier in May of 2022, easing from a 1.7 percent advance in April.
United States Wholesale Inventories
Wholesale inventories in the US rose 2 percent month-over-month to $880.6 billion in May of 2022, easing from an upwardly revised 2.3 percent advance in April, a preliminary estimate showed.
United States House Price Index MoM
The average prices of single-family houses with mortgages guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the US increased 1.6% from a month earlier in April of 2022, the same as in March.
United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
The Richmond Fed composite manufacturing index fell to -19 in June of 2022 from -9 in May, as two of its three component indexes dropped further into negative territory. The indexes for shipments (-16 vs -14 in May) and volume of new orders (-38 vs -29) declined while the employment index rose (23 vs 8).
Economic Data Due Tomorrow on 6-29-2022
MBA Mortgage Applications
MBA Mortgage Refinance Index
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