Global-e (GLBE) is a Uniquely Underappreciated Growth Story
Snapshot of Most Recent Earnings Report and Guidance
• Global-e (GLBE) showed 54% year over year revenue growth in Q4 2021, and 80% revenue growth for all of 2021.
• The company guided to 65% organic reveue growth for fiscal 2022.
• The median analyst estimate for revenue growth in 2023 is just over 51%.
• GMV grew 66% in Q4 2021 and guidance for 2022 came in at 75%.
• Adjusted EBITDA is positive, and grew 71% in Q4 versus analyst estimates of just 17%.
• Cash from Operations for 2021 was positive $15.7 million.
Global E Online Ltd (NASDAQ:GLBE) is attempting to solve the complexity-chain that surrounds cross-border e-commerce. If it does so, the very complexity of the endeavor itself stands as a moat.
Global e-commerce is raging higher and cross-border transactions as a per cent of that global e-commerce are also raging higher yielding a TAM that is growing on top of a growth spurt.
The are a myriad of risks, but if we look at the opportunity from forty thousand feet, we see a $4.5 billion enterprise looking to lead in a one trillion-dollar TAM.
Most Recent Quarterly Results for GLBE
We track 23 metrics for GLBE, of which we are quite focused on 11, namely we focus on:
• Revenue Change YoY
• GMV Change YoY
• Net GMV retention rate
• Cash from Operations ($M)
• Non-GAAP EBITDA Change YoY
• Non-GAAP EBIDTA Margin Percent
And then the guidance metrics that we focus on are the following:
• Implied Next Quarter Revenue Change YoY (organic)
• Implied Next Quarter GMV Change YoY
• Implied Full Year Revenue Change YoY (organic)
• Implied Full Year GMV Change YoY
• Implied Full Year non-GAAP EBITDA Change YoY
Global-e beat all eleven of these focus metrics, and rather handily, even when accounting for the extra inorganic revenue from the acquisition of Flow.
With 54% revenue growth in Q4 2021, full year guidance of 65% revenue growth for 2022, and positive adjusted EBITDA growing 44% in 2022, GLBE represents one of the few opportunities in technology for sustained hyper growth with a positive margin profile and a leadership position in enormous total addressable market. Further... Keep reading...