Option Market Alert: Apple Inc Implied Price Swing Hits A Notable High

Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) Risk Hits A Notable High

Date Published:

Risk Alert: Before we dive into any analysis we simply note that Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) risk is elevated. We'll detail it below -- but that's the lede -- the option market is starting to flash those neon lights that signal "risk is rising" with an IV30 of 30.21% versus the IV30 of the S&P 500 at 12.99%. The annual high for Apple Inc IV30 is 33.57%.

To skip ahead of this risk alert and see if buying or selling options has been a winner in Apple Inc, you can go here: Getting serious about option trading.

This is a proprietary risk rating and risk alert system that looks forward for the next month -- or really 30 days to be exact -- and that includes weekends. The system is based on multiple interactions of data points, many of which come directly from the option market for Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) . The creator of this model is Capital Market Laboratories (
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In the "Why This Matters" section at the end of this article on Apple Inc we're going to take a step back and show in great specificity that there is actually a lot less "luck" in successful option trading than many people know. The whole concept of an "option trading expert" is vastly over complicated and we'll talk about how superior returns are earned.

But first, let's turn back to AAPL and the company's risk rating:

We also take a peek at the implied vol for the Technology ETF (XLK), our broad based proxy for AAPL.

S&P 500 IV30     12.99%
Nasdaq 100 IV30     18.85%
XLK IV30     18.81%

AAPL HV 30     28.29%
AAPL Current IV30     30.21%
52 Week Low IV30     13.47%
52 Week High IV30     33.57%

The implied price swing risk as reflected by the option market has hit a notable high relative to the company's past. The option market reflects a 95% confidence interval stock price range of ($151.10, $173.50) within the next 30 calendar days.

The IV30® is the implied price swing risk reflected by the option market in the stock price for the next 30 calendar days -- it's forward looking. Apple Inc shows an IV30 of 30.2%, which is a notable high for the company relative to its past.

The option market for AAPL has shown an IV30 annual low of 13.5% and an annual high of 33.6%, meaning that AAPL is at the 83% percentile right now. Here's a table of the data before we dig into the implied price swing risk rating further.

Current IV30    
Low IV30    
High IV30   
30.2% 13.5% 33.6%

The implied stock swing risk from the option market is a substanially wider range in the next 30 calendar days for Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) than it has on average.
Further, if we look backwards, the stock has a realized 30-day historical volatility, called the HV30, of 28.29%.

We have a situation now where not only is the IV30 substantially elevated relative to the past, but the option market reflects the likelihood of yet more stock movement in the next 30-days than it has in the last 30-days. Let's turn to a chart to see what's going on.
Note how similar the forward risk for Apple Inc is priced (30.2%) compared to what happened just in the last 30-days (28.3%).

Apple Inc Risk Rating
The AAPL risk rating is at 4.5, where the rating goes from one (the lowest risk) to five (the highest risk). The driving factors for the 4.5 rating are:

The IV30 is above the 80th percentile.
The HV30 is above the 80th percentile.
The HV30 is below 30%.