Option Market Alert: Facebook Inc Implied Price Swing Hits An Inflection Point

Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) Risk Hits An Inflection Point

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No Risk Alert Here: Before we dive into any analysis we simply note that Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) risk is neither elevated nor depressed. We'll detail it below -- but that's the lede -- the option market is in a holding period with an IV30 of 37.1% versus the IV30 of the S&P 500 at 17.27%. You might say that the post it note for Facebook Inc would read, "holding pattern." The annual high for Facebook Inc IV30 is 43.15%.

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This is a proprietary risk rating and risk alert system that looks forward for the next month -- or really 30 days to be exact -- and that includes weekends. The system is based on multiple interactions of data points, many of which come directly from the option market for Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) . The creator of this model is Capital Market Laboratories (
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In the "Why This Matters" section at the end of this article on Facebook Inc we're going to take a step back and show in great specificity that there is actually a lot less "luck" in successful option trading than many people know. The whole concept of an "option trading expert" is vastly over complicated and we'll talk about how superior returns are earned.

But first, let's turn back to FB and the company's risk rating:

We also take a peek at the implied vol for the Technology ETF (XLK), our broad based proxy for FB.

S&P 500 IV30     17.27%
Nasdaq 100 IV30     25.15%
XLK IV30     25.85%

FB HV 30     36.25%
FB Current IV30     37.1%
52 Week Low IV30     15.18%
52 Week High IV30     43.15%

The implied price swing risk as reflected by the option market has hit an inflection point relative to the company's past. The option market reflects a 95% confidence interval stock price range of ($146.20, $173.30) within the next 30 calendar days.

The IV30® is the implied price swing risk reflected by the option market in the stock price for the next 30 calendar days -- it's forward looking. Facebook Inc shows an IV30 of 37.1%, which is an inflection point for the company relative to its past.

The option market for FB has shown an IV30 annual low of 15.2% and an annual high of 43.2%, meaning that FB is at the 78% percentile right now. Here's a table of the data before we dig into the implied price swing risk rating further.

Current IV30    
Low IV30    
High IV30   
37.1% 15.2% 43.2%

The implied stock swing risk from the option market reflects a wider range in the next 30 calendar days for Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) than it has on on average.
Further, if we look backwards, the stock has a realized 30-day historical volatility, called the HV30, of 36.25%.

We have a situation now where not only is the IV30 elevated relative to the past, but the option market reflects the likelihood of yet more stock movement in the next 30-days than it has in the last 30-days. Let's turn to a chart to see what's going on.
Note how similar the forward risk for Facebook Inc is priced (37.1%) compared to what happened just in the last 30-days (36.3%).

Facebook Inc Risk Rating
The FB risk rating is at 3, where the rating goes from one (the lowest risk) to five (the highest risk). The driving factors for the 3 rating are:

The IV30 is above the annual average.
The HV30 is above the 80th percentile.
The stock has moved -9.4% over the last 3-months which does indicate some elevated risk.