news.cmlviz.com
menu
share

Risk Alert in Option Market: Alphabet Inc Implied Price Swing Hits An Extraordinary High




Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Risk Hits An Extraordinary High

Date Published:

Risk Alert: Before we dive into any analysis we simply note that Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL) risk is at an extremely elevated level. We'll detail it below -- but that's the lede -- the option market is flashing a neon sign that reads "risk is here" with an IV30 of 31.57% versus the IV30 of the S&P 500 at 11.81%.



One thing to note, which we cover in the article, is that while implied volatility may be high, the real question that needs to be answered for option traders is not if the implied vol is high, but rather if the realized volatility that is coming in the next 30 days will be higher or lower than the option market is pricing.

To skip ahead of this risk alert and see if buying or selling options has been a winner in Alphabet Inc, you can go here: Getting serious about option trading.

PREFACE
This is a proprietary risk rating and risk alert system that looks forward for the next month -- or really 30 days to be exact -- and that includes weekends. The system is based on multiple interactions of data points, many of which come directly from the option market for Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL) . The creator of this model is Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz.com).
Option trading isn't about luck -- this four minute video will change your trading life forever: Option Trading and Truth

In the "Why This Matters" section at the end of this article on Alphabet Inc we're going to take a step back and show in great specificity that there is actually a lot less "luck" in successful option trading than many people know. The whole concept of an "option trading expert" is vastly over complicated and we'll talk about how superior returns are earned.

But first, let's turn back to GOOGL and the company's risk rating:

We also take a peek at the implied vol for the Technology ETF (XLK), our broad based proxy for GOOGL.


Breaking: GOOGL risk has exploded to a new annual high.




SNAPSHOT SUMMARY
S&P 500 IV30     11.81%
Nasdaq 100 IV30     17.41%
XLK IV30     17.29%

GOOGL HV 30     12.44%
GOOGL Current IV30     31.57%
52 Week Low IV30     10.62%
52 Week High IV30     31.57%


The risk as reflected by the option market has hit an extraordinary high relative to the company's past. The option market reflects a 95% confidence interval stock price range of ($1,096.60, $1,267.20) within the next 30 calendar days.

GOOGL OPTION MARKET RISK
The IV30® is the risk reflected by the option market in the stock price for the next 30 calendar days -- it's forward looking. Alphabet Inc shows an IV30 of 31.6%, which is an extraordinary high for the company relative to its past.

The option market for GOOGL has shown an IV30 annual low of 10.6% and an annual high of 31.6%, meaning that GOOGL is at the 100% percentile right now. Here's a table of the data before we dig into the risk rating further.

GOOGL
Current IV30    
GOOGL
Low IV30    
GOOGL
High IV30   
31.6% 10.6% 31.6%

The implied stock swing risk from the option market is a wider range in the next 30 calendar days for Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL) than it ever has in the last year.
Further, if we look backwards, the stock has a realized 30-day historical volatility, called the HV30, of 12.44%.




We have a situation now where not only is the IV30 extremely elevated relative to the past, but the option market reflects the likelihood of yet more stock movement in the next 30-days than it has in the last 30-days. Let's turn to a chart to see what's going on.
 
Note how much higher the forward looking stock swing price risk for Alphabet Inc is priced (31.6%) compared to what happened just in the last 30-days (12.4%).

Alphabet Inc Risk Rating
The GOOGL risk rating is at 5, where the rating goes from one (the lowest risk) to five (the highest risk). The driving factors for the 5 rating are:

The IV30 reflects extreme risk peaking to an annual high.
The HV30 is below the annual average.
The HV30 is below 30%.
The IV30 is above the HV30.
The stock has moved +14.4% over the last 3-months which does indicate some elevated risk.