PREFACE
There is a pattern of bullish momentum in Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) stock just days before earnings, and we can track that by looking at swing returns in the option market. This is a short-term swing trade, it won't be a winner forever, and it can be easily derailed by a couple of down days in the market irrespective of Amazon.com Inc news, but for now it has shown a repeating success that has not only returned 2,562% annualized returns, but has also shown a win-rate of 63%.

IDEA
The idea is quite simple -- trying to take advantage of a pattern in short-term bullishness just before earnings, and then getting out of the way so no actual earnings risk is taken. Now we can see it in Amazon.com Inc.

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The Short-term Option Swing Trade Ahead of Earnings in Amazon.com Inc
We will examine the outcome of going long a weekly call option in Amazon.com Inc just three trading days before earnings and selling the call one day before the actual news.

This is construct of the trade, noting that the short-term trade closes before earnings and therefore does not take a position on the earnings result.



Often times we look at option set-ups that are longer-term, and take no directional bet -- this is not one of those times. This is a no holds barred short-term bullish swing trade with options and that's it. It's a bullish bet, so must be conscious of the delta risk.

RISK MANAGEMENT
We can add another layer of risk management to the back-test by instituting and 40% stop loss and a 40% limit gain. Here is that setting:



In English, at the close of each trading day we check to see if the long option is either up or down 40% relative to the open price. If it was, the trade was closed.

RESULTS
Below we present the back-test stats over the last two-years in Amazon.com Inc:

AMZN: Long 40 Delta Call

% Wins: 63%
Wins: 5 Losses: 3
% Return:  112.3% 
% Annualized:  2,562% 

Tap Here to See the Back-test

The mechanics of the TradeMachine™ are that it uses end of day prices for every back-test entry and exit (every trigger).

We see a 112.3% return, testing this over the last 8 earnings dates in Amazon.com Inc. That's a total of just 16 days (2-day holding period for each earnings date, over 8 earnings dates). That's an annualized rate of 2,562%. That's the power of following the short-term pattern of bullishness ahead earnings -- and not taking on the actual risk from the earnings outcome.

This short-term trade hasn't won every time, and it won't, but it has been a winner 5 times and lost 3 times, for a 63% win-rate and again, that 112.3% return in less than one-full month of actual holding period. The trade will lose sometimes, and since it is such a short-term position, it can lose from news that moves the whole market that has nothing to do with Amazon.com Inc, but over the recent history, this bullish option trade has won ahead of earnings.

Setting Expectations
While this strategy has an overall return of 112.3%, the trade details keep us in bounds with expectations:
      The average percent return per trade was 13.91%.


Looking at More Recent History
We did a multi-year back-test above, now we can look at just the last year:

AMZN: Long 40 Delta Call

% Wins: 100%
Wins: 4 Losses: 0
% Return:  55.2% 
% Annualized:  2,519% 

Tap Here to See the Back-test

We're now looking at 55.2% returns, on 4 winning trades and 0 losing trades.
      The average percent return over the last year per trade was 13.89%.

WHAT HAPPENED
Bull markets tend to create optimism, whether it's deserved or not.

The pattern of this bull market reveals a bullish run up before earnings in the very short-term -- independent of the realized earnings result. This has been a tradable phenomenon in Amazon.com Inc. To see how to test this for any stock we welcome you to watch the demonstration video.