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Risk Malaise Alert in Option Market: Green Plains Inc Implied Price Swing Hits A Weakened Level




Green Plains Inc (NASDAQ:GPRE) Risk Hits A Weakened Level

Date Published:

Risk Malaise Alert -- Not How You Might Think:
Before we dive into any analysis we simply note that Green Plains Inc (NASDAQ:GPRE) risk is actually priced pretty low by the option market as of right now. We'll detail it below -- but that's the lede -- the option market is reflecting a sort of risk malaise, for now, an IV30 of 39.41% versus the IV30 of the S&P 500 at 8.21%. The annual high for Green Plains Inc IV30 is 62.1% -- and we're below that level. The alert here is low vol.



One thing to note beyond the risk malaise alert, which we cover in the article, is that while implied volatility may be low, the real question that needs to be answered for option sellers is not if the implied vol is low, but rather if the realized volatility that is coming in the next 30 days will be lower than the option market is pricing.

To skip ahead of this risk alert and see if buying or selling options has been a winner in Green Plains Inc, you can go here: Getting serious about option trading.

PREFACE
This is a proprietary risk rating and risk alert system that looks forward for the next month -- or really 30 days to be exact -- and that includes weekends. The system is based on multiple interactions of data points, many of which come directly from the option market for Green Plains Inc (NASDAQ:GPRE) . The creator of this model is Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz.com).


Option trading isn't about luck -- this four minute video will change your trading life forever: Option Trading and Truth

In the "Why This Matters" section at the end of this article on Green Plains Inc we're going to take a step back and show in great specificity that there is actually a lot less "luck" in successful option trading than many people know. The whole concept of an "option trading expert" is vastly over complicated and we'll talk about how superior returns are earned.

But first, let's turn back to GPRE and the company's risk rating:

We also take a peek at the implied vol for the Materials ETF (XLB), our broad based proxy for GPRE.





SNAPSHOT SUMMARY
S&P 500 IV30     8.21%
Nasdaq 100 IV30     13.89%
XLB IV30     11.46%

GPRE HV 30     37.13%
GPRE Current IV30     39.41%
52 Week Low IV30     36.58%
52 Week High IV30     62.1%


The risk as reflected by the option market has hit a weakened level relative to the company's past. The option market reflects a 95% confidence interval stock price range of ($18.60, $22.30) within the next 30 calendar days.

While the option market risk rating is on the low side, we note that companies in this situation are still susceptible to sudden stock move risk, it's simply the probability of that large stock move is depressed. Buyers of options and volatility may find these prices more attractive than at other times.

GPRE OPTION MARKET RISK
The IV30® is the risk reflected by the option market in the stock price for the next 30 calendar days -- it's forward looking. Green Plains Inc shows an IV30 of 39.4%, which is a weakened level for the company relative to its past.

The option market for GPRE has shown an IV30 annual low of 36.6% and an annual high of 62.1%, meaning that GPRE is at the 11% percentile right now. Here's a table of the data before we dig into the risk rating further.

GPRE
Current IV30    
GPRE
Low IV30    
GPRE
High IV30   
39.4% 36.6% 62.1%

The implied stock swing risk from the option market is significantly tighter in the next 30 calendar days for Green Plains Inc (NASDAQ:GPRE) than it has been on average for the year.
Further, if we look backwards, the stock has a realized 30-day historical volatility, called the HV30, of 37.13%.




We have an unusual situation now where the IV30 is substantially depressed relative to the past, but even with that risk pricing, the option market reflects the likelihood of more stock movement in the next 30-days than it has in the last 30-days. Let's turn to a chart to see what's going on.
 
Note how similar the forward risk for Green Plains Inc is priced (39.4%) compared to what happened just in the last 30-days (37.1%).

Green Plains Inc Risk Rating
The GPRE risk rating is at 2.5, where the rating goes from one (the lowest risk) to five (the highest risk). The driving factors for the 2.5 rating are:

The IV30 is below the 20th percentile.
The HV30 is below the annual average.