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Risk Alert in Option Market: Dillard's Inc Implied Price Swing Hits A Towering High




Dillard's Inc (NYSE:DDS) Risk Hits A Towering High

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Risk Alert: Before we dive into any analysis we simply note that Dillard's Inc (NYSE:DDS) risk is at an extremely elevated level. We'll detail it below -- but that's the lede -- the option market is flashing a neon sign that reads "risk is here" with an IV30 of 50.22% versus the IV30 of the S&P 500 at 7.44%.



One thing to note, which we cover in the article, is that while implied volatility may be high, the real question that needs to be answered for option traders is not if the implied vol is high, but rather if the realized volatility that is coming in the next 30 days will be higher or lower than the option market is pricing.

To skip ahead of this risk alert and see if buying or selling options has been a winner in Dillard's Inc, you can go here: Getting serious about option trading.

PREFACE
This is a proprietary risk rating and risk alert system that looks forward for the next month -- or really 30 days to be exact -- and that includes weekends. The system is based on multiple interactions of data points, many of which come directly from the option market for Dillard's Inc (NYSE:DDS) . The creator of this model is Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz.com).


Option trading isn't about luck -- this four minute video will change your trading life forever: Option Trading and Truth

In the "Why This Matters" section at the end of this article on Dillard's Inc we're going to take a step back and show in great specificity that there is actually a lot less "luck" in successful option trading than many people know. The whole concept of an "option trading expert" is vastly over complicated and we'll talk about how superior returns are earned.

But first, let's turn back to DDS and the company's risk rating:

We also take a peek at the implied vol for the Consumer Staples ETF (XLP), our broad based proxy for DDS.





SNAPSHOT SUMMARY
S&P 500 IV30     7.44%
Nasdaq 100 IV30     12.51%
XLP IV30     9.29%

DDS HV 30     52.22%
DDS Current IV30     50.22%
52 Week Low IV30     29.73%
52 Week High IV30     53.74%


The risk as reflected by the option market has hit a towering high relative to the company's past. The option market reflects a 95% confidence interval stock price range of ($52.40, $66.00) within the next 30 calendar days.

DDS OPTION MARKET RISK
The IV30® is the risk reflected by the option market in the stock price for the next 30 calendar days -- it's forward looking. Dillard's Inc shows an IV30 of 50.2%, which is a towering high for the company relative to its past.

The option market for DDS has shown an IV30 annual low of 29.7% and an annual high of 53.7%, meaning that DDS is at the 85% percentile right now. Here's a table of the data before we dig into the risk rating further.

DDS
Current IV30    
DDS
Low IV30    
DDS
High IV30   
50.2% 29.7% 53.7%

The implied stock swing risk from the option market is a substanially wider range in the next 30 calendar days for Dillard's Inc (NYSE:DDS) than it has on average.
Further, if we look backwards, the stock has a realized 30-day historical volatility, called the HV30, of 52.22%.




We have a situation now where the IV30 is substantially elevated relative to the past, but even with that risk pricing, the option market reflects the likelihood of less stock movement in the next 30-days than it has in the last 30-days. Let's turn to a chart to see what's going on.
 
Note how similar the forward risk for Dillard's Inc is priced (50.2%) compared to what happened just in the last 30-days (52.2%).

Dillard's Inc Risk Rating
The DDS risk rating is at 5, where the rating goes from one (the lowest risk) to five (the highest risk). The driving factors for the 5 rating are:

The IV30 is above the 80th percentile.
The IV30 is above 50%.
The HV30 is above the annual average.
The stock has moved +13.4% over the last 3-months which does indicate some elevated risk.