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Right After Earnings, The Intelligent Options Trade in Amazon.com Inc



Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) : Right After Earnings, The Intelligent Options Trade

Date Published:

LEDE
This is a simple option trade that starts two-days after Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) earnings and lasts for the one month to follow, that has been a winner for 3 straight years.





Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) Earnings
While the mainstream media likes to focus on the actual earnings move for a stock, that's the distraction when it comes to the option market.

For Amazon.com Inc, irrespective of whether the earnings move was up or down, if we waited two-days after the stock move, and then sold a one-month out of the money put spread, the results were simply staggering. We use two-days to allow the stock to fully reach equilibrium post earnings.

We can examine this intelligent approach, objectively, with a custom option back-test. Here is our earnings set-up:



Rules
* Open short put spread 2-days after earnings
* Close short put spread 29 days later
* Use the 30-day options

RETURNS
If we sold this 30/10 delta out-of-the-money put spread in Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) over the last three-years but only held it after earnings we get these results:

Intelligent Short Put Spread
* Monthly Options
* Back-test length: three-years
* Open 2-days After Earnings
* Close 29-days Later
* Holding Period: 28-Days per Earnings

Winning Trades: 11
Losing Trades: 1
Post-Earnings Short Put Spread Return:  54.9
Annualized Return:  60

We see a 54.9% return, testing this over the last 12 earnings dates in Amazon.com Inc. That's a total of just 336 days (28 days for each earnings date, over 12 earnings dates).

We can also see that this strategy hasn't been a winner all the time, rather it has won 11 times and lost 1 times, for a 92% win-rate.



MORE TO IT THAN MEETS THE EYE
While a short put spread is a strategy that gains profits if the underlying stock "doesn't go down a lot," there is more to this with Amazon.com Inc.

What we're after with this approach is identifying companies that make their large stock move the day after earnings -- whether that's up or down -- and after that, find a sense of equilibrium in the stock price for the next month. This is what we find in Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) .



WHAT HAPPENED
This is it -- this is how people profit from the option market -- it's not about guessing; ever.