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Stock Alert: U.S. Physical Therapy Inc Stock Volatility Hits A Deteriorated Level




U.S. Physical Therapy Inc (NYSE:USPH) Stock Volatility Hits A Deteriorated Level

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Stock Alert - But Not What You Might Think
Before we cover the full analysis we make a quick alert here that U.S. Physical Therapy Inc (NYSE:USPH) has seen its stock price move at a deteriorated level. We'll go through the details below -- but that's the lede -- the stock has been unusally quiet. If there was a post it note to summarize the stock movement in the last 30-days it would likely read "quiet time... too quiet?" The HV20 is 28.25% verus the HV20 of the S&P 500 at 6.43%.



Another bit to this alert of quiet time, which we cover in the article, is that while the historical volatility may be a deteriorated level, the real question that needs to be answered for option traders is not if the HV20 is low, but rather if the implied volatility that is priced for the next 30-days accuratley reflects what we're about to see in the stock for the next month.

To jump forward and examine if owning or shorting options has been a positive trade in U.S. Physical Therapy Inc, you can go here: Getting serious about option trading.

PREFACE
This is a proprietary realized volatility rating created by Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz) based on a large number of data interactions for U.S. Physical Therapy Inc (NYSE:USPH) . We examine the little used gem of daily stock volatility over a 20-day and 30-day trading period, as well as comparisons to the last year and the actual stock returns over the last three- and six-months and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices.


Option trading isn't about luck -- this three minute video will change your trading life forever: Option Trading and Truth


As a heads up, in the "Why This Matters" section at the end of this article on U.S. Physical Therapy Inc (NYSE:USPH) , we're going to take a step back and show really clearly that there is actually a lot less "luck" in successful option trading than most people are aware of. This idea of an "option trading expert" is vastly over complicated so those with the information advantage can continue to profit at the expense of the rest.

But before that, let's turn back to USPH. Here are the exact steps that led us to this rating, and whether it's a risk alert or a holding pattern.

USPH Recent Stock Volatility


Rating
Stock volatility using proprietary measures has hit a deteriorated level. While stocks with USPH's profile see a short-term quiet period, this is also one of those times when a shake out volatility move could be on the horizon. Let's take a deep dive into some institutional level volatility measures for U.S. Physical Therapy Inc (NYSE:USPH) .

U.S. Physical Therapy Inc Stock Performance
USPH is down -6.9% over the last three months and up +2.5% over the last six months. The stock price is up +27.3% over the last year. The current stock price is $64.

USPH Step 1: Stock Returns
The one-year stock return does not impact the volatility rating since we are looking at a shorter time horizon. However, the rating does examine the 3-month returns and the absolute difference between the 3-month and 6-month returns.

  The 3-month stock return of -6.9% is too small to impact the stock volatility rating for USPH.
  The small difference between the 3-month and 6-month stock returns does not impact the stock volatility rating for USPH.

USPH Step 2: Daily Stock Volatility Level
The HV30® takes the stock's day to day historical volatility over the last 30-days and then annualizes it. The HV20 looks back over just 20-days -- a shorter time period. Here is the breakdown for U.S. Physical Therapy Inc (NYSE:USPH) and how the day-by-day stock historical volatilities have impacted the rating:

  The HV20 of 21.7% is low enough that it has a downward impact on USPH's volatility rating.


USPH Step 3: U.S. Physical Therapy Inc HV20 Compared to Indices
* The HV20 for USPH is substantially larger than that for both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 which raises the volatility rating.

* The HV20 for USPH is substantially larger than that for the Health Care ETF (XLV) which raises the volatility rating.

Here is summary data in tabular and chart format.

           USPH
           HV20    
   S&P 500
HV20
   NASDAQ 100
HV20   
   XLV
HV20   
           21.7%    6.43%    6.07%    5.57%

USPH Step 4: Daily Volatility Percentiles and Highs

We also examine the annual high of the HV30 in our rating but in this case the 52 week high in HV30 for USPH is 34.5%, which is not enough to impact the stock volatility rating.

Here is summary data in tabular and chart format.

           USPH
           HV20    
   USPH
HV30
   USPH
HV30 High   
           21.7%    28.3%    34.5%

Final Stock Volatility Percentile Level: USPH
The final evolution of the volatility rating for U.S. Physical Therapy Inc is a comparison of the HV30 value relative to its past, which is neatly summarized in the percentile -- a scoring mechanism that goes from a low of 1 to a high of 100.

  The HV30 percentile for U.S. Physical Therapy Inc is 68%, which means the stock has seen elevated volatile price movement relative to its own past and that has a small impact on the stock volatility rating.

U.S. Physical Therapy Inc Realized Volatility Percentiles