Stock Alert: General Dynamics Corporation Price Volatility Hits A Rock Bottom Low

General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE:GD) Price Volatility Hits A Rock Bottom Low

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Stock Alert - But Not What You Might Think
Before we cover the full analysis we make a quick alert here that General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE:GD) has seen its stock price move at a collapsing low level. We'll go through the details below -- but that's the lede -- the stock has been unusally quiet. If there was a post it note to summarize the stock movement in the last 30-days it would likely read "quiet time... too quiet?" The HV20 is 12.61% verus the HV20 of the S&P 500 at 6.43%.

Another bit to this alert of quiet time, which we cover in the article, is that while the historical volatility may be a collapsing low level, the real question that needs to be answered for option traders is not if the HV20 is low, but rather if the implied volatility that is priced for the next 30-days accuratley reflects what we're about to see in the stock for the next month.

To jump forward and examine if owning or shorting options has been a positive trade in General Dynamics Corporation, you can go here: Getting serious about option trading.

This is a proprietary realized volatility rating created by Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz) based on a large number of data interactions for General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE:GD) . We examine the little used gem of daily stock volatility over a 20-day and 30-day trading period, as well as comparisons to the last year and the actual stock returns over the last three- and six-months and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices.

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As a heads up, in the "Why This Matters" section at the end of this article on General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE:GD) , we're going to take a step back and show really clearly that there is actually a lot less "luck" in successful option trading than most people are aware of. This idea of an "option trading expert" is vastly over complicated so those with the information advantage can continue to profit at the expense of the rest.

But before that, let's turn back to GD. Here are the exact steps that led us to this rating, and whether it's a risk alert or a holding pattern.

GD Recent Price Volatility

Price volatility using proprietary measures has hit a collapsing low level. While stocks with GD's profile see a short-term quiet period, this is also one of those times when a shake out volatility move could be on the horizon. Let's take a deep dive into some institutional level volatility measures for General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE:GD) .

General Dynamics Corporation Stock Performance
GD is up +5.5% over the last three months and up +24.8% over the last six months. The stock price is up +37.6% over the last year. The current stock price is $188.13.

GD Step 1: Stock Returns
The one-year stock return does not impact the volatility rating since we are looking at a shorter time horizon. However, the rating does examine the 3-month returns and the absolute difference between the 3-month and 6-month returns.

  The 3-month stock return of +5.5% is too small to impact the price volatility rating for GD.
  The greater than 10% difference between the 3-month and 6-month stock returns has an impact on the price volatility rating for GD.

GD Step 2: Daily Price Volatility Level
The HV30® takes the stock's day to day historical volatility over the last 30-days and then annualizes it. The HV20 looks back over just 20-days -- a shorter time period. Here is the breakdown for General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE:GD) and how the day-by-day price historical volatilities have impacted the rating:

  The HV20 of 11.7% is quite low and has a substantial downward impact on GD's volatility rating.

GD Step 3: General Dynamics Corporation HV20 Compared to Indices
* The HV20 for GD is substantially larger than that for both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 which raises the volatility rating.

* The HV20 for GD is smaller than that for the Aerospace & Defense ETF (XAR) which drops the volatility rating.

Here is summary data in tabular and chart format.

   S&P 500
   NASDAQ 100
           11.7%    6.43%    6.07%    13.4%

GD Step 4: Daily Volatility Percentiles and Highs

We also examine the annual high of the HV30 in our rating but in this case the 52 week high in HV30 for GD is 22.0%, which is not enough to impact the price volatility rating.

Here is summary data in tabular and chart format.

HV30 High   
           11.7%    12.6%    22.0%

Final Price Volatility Percentile Level: GD
The final evolution of the volatility rating for General Dynamics Corporation is a comparison of the HV30 value relative to its past, which is neatly summarized in the percentile -- a scoring mechanism that goes from a low of 1 to a high of 100.

  The HV30 percentile for General Dynamics Corporation is 22%, which means the stock has seen low volatility in its price movement relative to its own past and that has a slightly dampening impact on the price volatility rating.

General Dynamics Corporation Realized Volatility Percentiles