Entegris Inc (NASDAQ:ENTG) Realized Volatility Hits An Inflection PointDate Published: 2017-04-21
Stock Alert and Holding Pattern
Before we cover the full analysis we make a quick alert here that Entegris Inc (NASDAQ:ENTG) has seen its stock price move at an inflection point level. We'll go through the details below -- but that's the lede -- the stock has been behaving, roughly speaking, 'normally.' If there was a post it note to summarize the stock movement in the last 30-days it would likely read "holding pattern." The HV20 is 24.33% verus the HV20 of the S&P 500 at 6.43%.
But don't confuse a holding pattern with low risk -- this is quite possibly an inflection point.
Another bit to this holding pattern, which we cover in the article, is that while the historical volatility may be an inflection point level, the real question that needs to be answered for option traders is not if the HV20 is high or low, but rather if the implied volatility that is priced for the next 30-days accuratley reflects what we're about to see in the stock for the next month.
To jump forward and examine if owning or shorting options has been a positive trade in Entegris Inc, you can go here: Getting serious about option trading.
This is a proprietary realized volatility rating created by Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz) based on a large number of data interactions for Entegris Inc (NASDAQ:ENTG) . We examine the little used gem of daily stock volatility over a 20-day and 30-day trading period, as well as comparisons to the last year and the actual stock returns over the last three- and six-months and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices.
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As a heads up, in the "Why This Matters" section at the end of this article on Entegris Inc (NASDAQ:ENTG) , we're going to take a step back and show really clearly that there is actually a lot less "luck" in successful option trading than most people are aware of. This idea of an "option trading expert" is vastly over complicated so those with the information advantage can continue to profit at the expense of the rest.
But before that, let's turn back to ENTG. Here are the exact steps that led us to this rating, and whether it's a risk alert or a holding pattern.
ENTG Recent Realized Volatility
Realized volatility using proprietary measures has hit an inflection point level.
Even though Entegris Inc generates substantial revenue and is a mid cap, technology companies in general have higher stock volatility than the rest of the market. Here is a rolling annual volatility chart of the biotech index (IBB) versus the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500. Note how elevated the technology sector volatility is (the yellow curve) relative to the S&P 500.
Let's take a deep dive into some institutional level volatility measures for Entegris Inc (NASDAQ:ENTG) .
Entegris Inc Stock Performance
ENTG is up +31.0% over the last three months and up +47.5% over the last six months. The stock price is up +76.8% over the last year. The current stock price is $23.9.
ENTG Step 1: Stock Returns
↪ The 3-month stock return of +31.0% has a substantial impact on the realized volatility rating for ENTG.
↪ The greater than 10% difference between the 3-month and 6-month stock returns has an impact on the realized volatility rating for ENTG.
ENTG Step 2: Daily Realized Volatility Level
The HV30® takes the stock's day to day historical volatility over the last 30-days and then annualizes it. The HV20 looks back over just 20-days -- a shorter time period. Here is the breakdown for Entegris Inc (NASDAQ:ENTG) and how the day-by-day realized historical volatilities have impacted the rating:
↪ The HV20 of 20.1% is low enough that it has a downward impact on ENTG's volatility rating.
ENTG Step 3: Entegris Inc HV20 Compared to Indices
* The HV20 for ENTG is substantially larger than that for both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 which raises the volatility rating.
* The HV20 for ENTG is substantially larger than that for the Technology ETF (XLK) which raises the volatility rating.
Here is summary data in tabular and chart format.
| S&P 500
| NASDAQ 100
ENTG Step 4: Daily Volatility Percentiles and Highs
We also examine the annual high of the HV30 in our rating but in this case the 52 week high in HV30 for ENTG is 42.5%, which is not enough to impact the realized volatility rating.
Here is summary data in tabular and chart format.
Final Realized Volatility Percentile Level: ENTG
The final evolution of the volatility rating for Entegris Inc is a comparison of the HV30 value relative to its past, which is neatly summarized in the percentile -- a scoring mechanism that goes from a low of 1 to a high of 100.
↪ The HV30 percentile for Entegris Inc is 22%, which means the stock has seen low volatility in its price movement relative to its own past and that has a slightly dampening impact on the realized volatility rating.
Entegris Inc Realized Volatility Percentiles