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Risk Alert in Option Market: AcelRx Pharmaceuticals Inc Implied Price Swing Hits A Rare High




AcelRx Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:ACRX) Risk Hits A Rare High

Date Published:

Risk Alert: Before we dive into any analysis we simply note that AcelRx Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:ACRX) risk is at an extremely elevated level. We'll detail it below -- but that's the lede -- the option market is flashing a neon sign that reads "risk is here" with an IV30 of 121.69% verus the IV30 of the S&P 500 at 11.15%.



One thing to note, which we cover in the article, is that while implied volatility may be high, the real question that needs to be answered for option traders is not if the impled vol is high, but rather if the realized volatility that is coming in the next 30 days will be higher or lower than the option market is pricing.

To skip ahead of this risk alert and see if buying or selling options has been a winner in AcelRx Pharmaceuticals Inc, you can go here: Geting serious about option trading.

PREFACE
This is a proprietary risk rating and risk alert system that looks forward for the next month -- or really 30 days to be exact -- and that includes weekends. The system is based on multiple interactions of data points, many of which come directly from the option market for AcelRx Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:ACRX) . The creator of this model is Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz.com).


Option trading isn't about luck -- this three minute video will change your trading life forever: Option Trading and Truth


In the "Why This Matters" section at the end of this article on AcelRx Pharmaceuticals Inc we're going to take a step back and show in great specificity that there is actually a lot less "luck" in successful option trading than many people know. The whole concept of an "option trading expert" is vastly over complicated and we'll talk about how superior returns are earned.

But first, let's turn back to ACRX and the company's risk rating:

We also take a peek at the implied vol for the Health Care ETF (XLV), our broad based proxy for ACRX.





SNAPSHOT SUMMARY
S&P 500 IV30     11.15%
Nasdaq 100 IV30     12.44%
XLV IV30     11.89%

ACRX HV 30     35.37%
ACRX Current IV30     121.69%
52 Week Low IV30     83.48%
52 Week High IV30     159.38%


The risk as reflected by the option market has hit a rare high relative to the company's past. The option market reflects a 95% confidence interval stock price range of ($2.00, $3.40) within the next 30 calendar days.

ACRX OPTION MARKET RISK
The IV30® is the risk reflected by the option market in the stock price for the next 30 calendar days -- it's forward looking. AcelRx Pharmaceuticals Inc shows an IV30 of 121.7%, which is a rare high for the company relative to its past.

The option market for ACRX has shown an IV30 annual low of 83.5% and an annual high of 159.4%, meaning that ACRX is at the 50% percentile right now. Here's a table of the data before we dig into the risk rating further.

ACRX
Current IV30    
ACRX
Low IV30    
ACRX
High IV30   
121.7% 83.5% 159.4%

The implied stock swing risk from the option market reflects a wider range in the next 30 calendar days for AcelRx Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:ACRX) than it has on on average.
Further, if we look backwards, the stock has a realized 30-day historical volatility, called the HV30, of 35.37%.




We have a situation now where not only is the IV30 elevated relative to the past, but the option market reflects the likelihood of yet more stock movement in the next 30-days than it has in the last 30-days. Let's turn to a chart to see what's going on.
 
Note how much higher the forward looking stock swing price risk for AcelRx Pharmaceuticals Inc is priced (121.7%) compared to what happened just in the last 30-days (35.4%).

AcelRx Pharmaceuticals Inc Risk Rating
The ACRX risk rating is at 5, where the rating goes from one (the lowest risk) to five (the highest risk). The driving factors for the 5 rating are:

The IV30 is above the annual average.
The IV30 is above 100%, which is extremely elevated.
The HV30 is below the 20th percentile.
The IV30 is above the HV30.
The stock has moved just +1.9% over the last 3-months which does indicate some depressed risk.