Option Market Alert Zendesk Inc Implied Price Swing Hits An Elevated Level

Option Market Alert: Zendesk Inc Implied Price Swing Hits An Elevated Level

Zendesk Inc (NYSE:ZEN) Risk Hits An Elevated Level

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No Risk Alert Here: Before we dive into any analysis we simply note that Zendesk Inc (NYSE:ZEN) risk is neither elevated nor depressed. We'll detail it below -- but that's the lede -- the option market is in a holding period with an IV30 of 47.45% verus the IV30 of the S&P 500 at 11.15%. You might say that the post it note for Zendesk Inc would read, "holding pattern." The annual high for Zendesk Inc IV30 is 61.39%.

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This is a proprietary risk rating and risk alert system that looks forward for the next month -- or really 30 days to be exact -- and that includes weekends. The system is based on multiple interactions of data points, many of which come directly from the option market for Zendesk Inc (NYSE:ZEN) . The creator of this model is Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz.com).

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In the "Why This Matters" section at the end of this article on Zendesk Inc we're going to take a step back and show in great specificity that there is actually a lot less "luck" in successful option trading than many people know. The whole concept of an "option trading expert" is vastly over complicated and we'll talk about how superior returns are earned.

But first, let's turn back to ZEN and the company's risk rating:

We also take a peek at the implied vol for the Technology ETF (XLK), our broad based proxy for ZEN.

S&P 500 IV30     11.15%
Nasdaq 100 IV30     12.44%
XLK IV30     12.46%

ZEN HV 30     21.41%
ZEN Current IV30     47.45%
52 Week Low IV30     33.72%
52 Week High IV30     61.39%

The implied price swing risk as reflected by the option market has hit an elevated level relative to the company's past. The option market reflects a 95% confidence interval stock price range of ($25.20, $31.30) within the next 30 calendar days.

The IV30® is the implied price swing risk reflected by the option market in the stock price for the next 30 calendar days -- it's forward looking. Zendesk Inc shows an IV30 of 47.5%, which is an elevated level for the company relative to its past.

The option market for ZEN has shown an IV30 annual low of 33.7% and an annual high of 61.4%, meaning that ZEN is at the 50% percentile right now. Here's a table of the data before we dig into the implied price swing risk rating further.

Current IV30    
Low IV30    
High IV30   
47.5% 33.7% 61.4%

The implied stock swing risk from the option market has created a range which is tighter in the next 30 calendar days for Zendesk Inc (NYSE:ZEN) than it has been on average for the last year on average.
Further, if we look backwards, the stock has a realized 30-day historical volatility, called the HV30, of 21.41%.

We have an unusual situation now where the IV30 is depressed relative to the past, but even with that risk pricing, the option market reflects the likelihood of a greater stock movement in the next 30-days than the stock has realized in the last 30-days. Let's turn to a chart to see what's going on.
Note how much higher the forward looking stock swing price risk for Zendesk Inc is priced (47.5%) compared to what happened just in the last 30-days (21.4%).

Zendesk Inc Risk Rating
The ZEN risk rating is at 3.5, where the rating goes from one (the lowest risk) to five (the highest risk). The driving factors for the 3.5 rating are:

The IV30 is below the annual average.
The IV30 is above 40%.
The HV30 is below the 20th percentile.
The HV30 is below 30%.
The IV30 is above the HV30.
The stock has moved +17.4% over the last 3-months which does indicate some elevated risk.