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Option Market Alert: Yandex N.V. Implied Price Swing Hits An Inflection Point




Yandex N.V. (NASDAQ:YNDX) Risk Hits An Inflection Point

Date Published:

No Risk Alert Here: Before we dive into any analysis we simply note that Yandex N.V. (NASDAQ:YNDX) risk is neither elevated nor depressed. We'll detail it below -- but that's the lede -- the option market is in a holding period with an IV30 of 40.17% verus the IV30 of the S&P 500 at 11.15%. You might say that the post it note for Yandex N.V. would read, "holding pattern." The annual high for Yandex N.V. IV30 is 56.07%.



To skip ahead and see if buying or selling options has been a winner in Yandex N.V., you can go here: Geting serious about option trading.

PREFACE
This is a proprietary risk rating and risk alert system that looks forward for the next month -- or really 30 days to be exact -- and that includes weekends. The system is based on multiple interactions of data points, many of which come directly from the option market for Yandex N.V. (NASDAQ:YNDX) . The creator of this model is Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz.com).


Option trading isn't about luck -- this three minute video will change your trading life forever: Option Trading and Truth


In the "Why This Matters" section at the end of this article on Yandex N.V. we're going to take a step back and show in great specificity that there is actually a lot less "luck" in successful option trading than many people know. The whole concept of an "option trading expert" is vastly over complicated and we'll talk about how superior returns are earned.

But first, let's turn back to YNDX and the company's risk rating:

We also take a peek at the implied vol for the Technology ETF (XLK), our broad based proxy for YNDX.





SNAPSHOT SUMMARY
S&P 500 IV30     11.15%
Nasdaq 100 IV30     12.44%
XLK IV30     12.46%

YNDX HV 30     37.1%
YNDX Current IV30     40.17%
52 Week Low IV30     28.41%
52 Week High IV30     56.07%


The implied price swing risk as reflected by the option market has hit an inflection point relative to the company's past. The option market reflects a 95% confidence interval stock price range of ($21.20, $25.50) within the next 30 calendar days.

YNDX OPTION MARKET IMPLIED PRICE SWING RISK
The IV30® is the implied price swing risk reflected by the option market in the stock price for the next 30 calendar days -- it's forward looking. Yandex N.V. shows an IV30 of 40.2%, which is an inflection point for the company relative to its past.

The option market for YNDX has shown an IV30 annual low of 28.4% and an annual high of 56.1%, meaning that YNDX is at the 43% percentile right now. Here's a table of the data before we dig into the implied price swing risk rating further.

YNDX
Current IV30    
YNDX
Low IV30    
YNDX
High IV30   
40.2% 28.4% 56.1%

The implied stock swing risk from the option market has created a range which is tighter in the next 30 calendar days for Yandex N.V. (NASDAQ:YNDX) than it has been on average for the last year on average.
Further, if we look backwards, the stock has a realized 30-day historical volatility, called the HV30, of 37.1%.




We have an unusual situation now where the IV30 is depressed relative to the past, but even with that risk pricing, the option market reflects the likelihood of a greater stock movement in the next 30-days than the stock has realized in the last 30-days. Let's turn to a chart to see what's going on.
 
Note how similar the forward risk for Yandex N.V. is priced (40.2%) compared to what happened just in the last 30-days (37.1%).

Yandex N.V. Risk Rating
The YNDX risk rating is at 3, where the rating goes from one (the lowest risk) to five (the highest risk). The driving factors for the 3 rating are:

The IV30 is below the annual average.
The IV30 is above 40%.
The HV30 is above the annual average.