Triple-S Management Corporation (NYSE:GTS) Risk Hits An Inflection PointDate Published: 2017-04-21
No Risk Alert Here: Before we dive into any analysis we simply note that Triple-S Management Corporation (NYSE:GTS) risk is neither elevated nor depressed. We'll detail it below -- but that's the lede -- the option market is in a holding period with an IV30 of 48.97% verus the IV30 of the S&P 500 at 11.15%. You might say that the post it note for Triple-S Management Corporation would read, "holding pattern." The annual high for Triple-S Management Corporation IV30 is 61.09%.
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This is a proprietary risk rating and risk alert system that looks forward for the next month -- or really 30 days to be exact -- and that includes weekends. The system is based on multiple interactions of data points, many of which come directly from the option market for Triple-S Management Corporation (NYSE:GTS) . The creator of this model is Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz.com).
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But first, let's turn back to GTS and the company's risk rating:
We also take a peek at the implied vol for the Health Care ETF (XLV), our broad based proxy for GTS.
|S&P 500 IV30||11.15%|
|Nasdaq 100 IV30||12.44%|
|GTS HV 30||28.59%|
|GTS Current IV30||48.97%|
|52 Week Low IV30||27.16%|
|52 Week High IV30||61.09%|
The implied price swing risk as reflected by the option market has hit an inflection point relative to the company's past. The option market reflects a 95% confidence interval stock price range of ($16.50, $20.60) within the next 30 calendar days.
GTS OPTION MARKET IMPLIED PRICE SWING RISK
The IV30® is the implied price swing risk reflected by the option market in the stock price for the next 30 calendar days -- it's forward looking. Triple-S Management Corporation shows an IV30 of 49.0%, which is an inflection point for the company relative to its past.
The option market for GTS has shown an IV30 annual low of 27.2% and an annual high of 61.1%, meaning that GTS is at the 64% percentile right now. Here's a table of the data before we dig into the implied price swing risk rating further.
The implied stock swing risk from the option market reflects a wider range in the next 30 calendar days for Triple-S Management Corporation (NYSE:GTS) than it has on on average.
We have a situation now where not only is the IV30 elevated relative to the past, but the option market reflects the likelihood of yet more stock movement in the next 30-days than it has in the last 30-days. Let's turn to a chart to see what's going on.
Triple-S Management Corporation Risk Rating
The GTS risk rating is at 3, where the rating goes from one (the lowest risk) to five (the highest risk). The driving factors for the 3 rating are:
↪ The IV30 is above the annual average.
↪ The IV30 is above 40%.
↪ The HV30 is below the annual average.
↪ The HV30 is below 30%.
↪ The IV30 is above the HV30.