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Option Market Alert: Tesla Inc Implied Price Swing Hits An Elevated Level




Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) Risk Hits An Elevated Level

Date Published:

No Risk Alert Here: Before we dive into any analysis we simply note that Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) risk is neither elevated nor depressed. We'll detail it below -- but that's the lede -- the option market is in a holding period with an IV30 of 42.51% verus the IV30 of the S&P 500 at 11.15%. You might say that the post it note for Tesla Inc would read, "holding pattern." The annual high for Tesla Inc IV30 is 56.25%.



To skip ahead and see if buying or selling options has been a winner in Tesla Inc, you can go here: Geting serious about option trading.

PREFACE
This is a proprietary risk rating and risk alert system that looks forward for the next month -- or really 30 days to be exact -- and that includes weekends. The system is based on multiple interactions of data points, many of which come directly from the option market for Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) . The creator of this model is Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz.com).


Option trading isn't about luck -- this four minute video will change your trading life forever: Option Trading and Truth

In the "Why This Matters" section at the end of this article on Tesla Inc we're going to take a step back and show in great specificity that there is actually a lot less "luck" in successful option trading than many people know. The whole concept of an "option trading expert" is vastly over complicated and we'll talk about how superior returns are earned.

But first, let's turn back to TSLA and the company's risk rating:

We also take a peek at the implied vol for the Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY), our broad based proxy for TSLA.





SNAPSHOT SUMMARY
S&P 500 IV30     11.15%
Nasdaq 100 IV30     12.44%
XLY IV30     12.1%

TSLA HV 30     37.87%
TSLA Current IV30     42.51%
52 Week Low IV30     27.76%
52 Week High IV30     56.25%


The implied price swing risk as reflected by the option market has hit an elevated level relative to the company's past. The option market reflects a 95% confidence interval stock price range of ($272.90, $331.60) within the next 30 calendar days.

TSLA OPTION MARKET IMPLIED PRICE SWING RISK
The IV30® is the implied price swing risk reflected by the option market in the stock price for the next 30 calendar days -- it's forward looking. Tesla Inc shows an IV30 of 42.5%, which is an elevated level for the company relative to its past.

The option market for TSLA has shown an IV30 annual low of 27.8% and an annual high of 56.3%, meaning that TSLA is at the 52% percentile right now. Here's a table of the data before we dig into the implied price swing risk rating further.

TSLA
Current IV30    
TSLA
Low IV30    
TSLA
High IV30   
42.5% 27.8% 56.3%

The implied stock swing risk from the option market reflects a wider range in the next 30 calendar days for Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) than it has on on average.
Further, if we look backwards, the stock has a realized 30-day historical volatility, called the HV30, of 37.87%.




We have a situation now where not only is the IV30 elevated relative to the past, but the option market reflects the likelihood of yet more stock movement in the next 30-days than it has in the last 30-days. Let's turn to a chart to see what's going on.
 
Note how much higher the forward looking stock swing price risk for Tesla Inc is priced (42.5%) compared to what happened just in the last 30-days (37.9%).

Tesla Inc Risk Rating
The TSLA risk rating is at 3.5, where the rating goes from one (the lowest risk) to five (the highest risk). The driving factors for the 3.5 rating are:

The IV30 is above the annual average.
The IV30 is above 40%.
The HV30 is above the annual average.
The IV30 is above the HV30.
The stock has moved +23.5% over the last 3-months which does indicate some elevated risk.