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Option Market Alert: SPS Commerce Inc Implied Price Swing Hits An Inflection Point




SPS Commerce Inc (NASDAQ:SPSC) Risk Hits An Inflection Point

Date Published:

No Risk Alert Here: Before we dive into any analysis we simply note that SPS Commerce Inc (NASDAQ:SPSC) risk is neither elevated nor depressed. We'll detail it below -- but that's the lede -- the option market is in a holding period with an IV30 of 37.52% verus the IV30 of the S&P 500 at 11.15%. You might say that the post it note for SPS Commerce Inc would read, "holding pattern." The annual high for SPS Commerce Inc IV30 is 52.23%.



To skip ahead and see if buying or selling options has been a winner in SPS Commerce Inc, you can go here: Geting serious about option trading.

PREFACE
This is a proprietary risk rating and risk alert system that looks forward for the next month -- or really 30 days to be exact -- and that includes weekends. The system is based on multiple interactions of data points, many of which come directly from the option market for SPS Commerce Inc (NASDAQ:SPSC) . The creator of this model is Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz.com).


Option trading isn't about luck -- this four minute video will change your trading life forever: Option Trading and Truth


In the "Why This Matters" section at the end of this article on SPS Commerce Inc we're going to take a step back and show in great specificity that there is actually a lot less "luck" in successful option trading than many people know. The whole concept of an "option trading expert" is vastly over complicated and we'll talk about how superior returns are earned.

But first, let's turn back to SPSC and the company's risk rating:

We also take a peek at the implied vol for the Technology ETF (XLK), our broad based proxy for SPSC.





SNAPSHOT SUMMARY
S&P 500 IV30     11.15%
Nasdaq 100 IV30     12.44%
XLK IV30     12.46%

SPSC HV 30     22.23%
SPSC Current IV30     37.52%
52 Week Low IV30     21.39%
52 Week High IV30     52.23%


The implied price swing risk as reflected by the option market has hit an inflection point relative to the company's past. The option market reflects a 95% confidence interval stock price range of ($52.60, $62.50) within the next 30 calendar days.

SPSC OPTION MARKET IMPLIED PRICE SWING RISK
The IV30® is the implied price swing risk reflected by the option market in the stock price for the next 30 calendar days -- it's forward looking. SPS Commerce Inc shows an IV30 of 37.5%, which is an inflection point for the company relative to its past.

The option market for SPSC has shown an IV30 annual low of 21.4% and an annual high of 52.2%, meaning that SPSC is at the 52% percentile right now. Here's a table of the data before we dig into the implied price swing risk rating further.

SPSC
Current IV30    
SPSC
Low IV30    
SPSC
High IV30   
37.5% 21.4% 52.2%

The implied stock swing risk from the option market reflects a wider range in the next 30 calendar days for SPS Commerce Inc (NASDAQ:SPSC) than it has on on average.
Further, if we look backwards, the stock has a realized 30-day historical volatility, called the HV30, of 22.23%.




We have a situation now where not only is the IV30 elevated relative to the past, but the option market reflects the likelihood of yet more stock movement in the next 30-days than it has in the last 30-days. Let's turn to a chart to see what's going on.
 
Note how much higher the forward looking stock swing price risk for SPS Commerce Inc is priced (37.5%) compared to what happened just in the last 30-days (22.2%).

SPS Commerce Inc Risk Rating
The SPSC risk rating is at 3, where the rating goes from one (the lowest risk) to five (the highest risk). The driving factors for the 3 rating are:

The IV30 is above the annual average.
The HV30 is below the 20th percentile.
The HV30 is below 30%.
The IV30 is above the HV30.
The stock has moved -18.6% over the last 3-months which does indicate some elevated risk.