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Option Market Alert: Southcross Energy Partners, L.P. Implied Price Swing Hits A Notable High




Southcross Energy Partners, L.P. (NYSE:SXE) Risk Hits A Notable High

Date Published:

Risk Alert: Before we dive into any analysis we simply note that Southcross Energy Partners, L.P. (NYSE:SXE) risk is elevated. We'll detail it below -- but that's the lede -- the option market is starting to flash those neon lights that signal "risk is rising" with an IV30 of 72.92% verus the IV30 of the S&P 500 at 11.15%. The annual high for Southcross Energy Partners, L.P. IV30 is 189.88%.



To skip ahead of this risk alert and see if buying or selling options has been a winner in Southcross Energy Partners, L.P., you can go here: Geting serious about option trading.

PREFACE
This is a proprietary risk rating and risk alert system that looks forward for the next month -- or really 30 days to be exact -- and that includes weekends. The system is based on multiple interactions of data points, many of which come directly from the option market for Southcross Energy Partners, L.P. (NYSE:SXE) . The creator of this model is Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz.com).


Option trading isn't about luck -- this four minute video will change your trading life forever: Option Trading and Truth


In the "Why This Matters" section at the end of this article on Southcross Energy Partners, L.P. we're going to take a step back and show in great specificity that there is actually a lot less "luck" in successful option trading than many people know. The whole concept of an "option trading expert" is vastly over complicated and we'll talk about how superior returns are earned.

But first, let's turn back to SXE and the company's risk rating:

We also take a peek at the implied vol for the Energy ETF (XLE), our broad based proxy for SXE.





SNAPSHOT SUMMARY
S&P 500 IV30     11.15%
Nasdaq 100 IV30     12.44%
XLE IV30     18.35%

SXE HV 30     66.6%
SXE Current IV30     72.92%
52 Week Low IV30     69.47%
52 Week High IV30     189.88%


The implied price swing risk as reflected by the option market has hit a notable high relative to the company's past. The option market reflects a 95% confidence interval stock price range of ($3.70, $5.20) within the next 30 calendar days.

SXE OPTION MARKET IMPLIED PRICE SWING RISK
The IV30® is the implied price swing risk reflected by the option market in the stock price for the next 30 calendar days -- it's forward looking. Southcross Energy Partners, L.P. shows an IV30 of 72.9%, which is a notable high for the company relative to its past.

The option market for SXE has shown an IV30 annual low of 69.5% and an annual high of 189.9%, meaning that SXE is at the 3% percentile right now. Here's a table of the data before we dig into the implied price swing risk rating further.

SXE
Current IV30    
SXE
Low IV30    
SXE
High IV30   
72.9% 69.5% 189.9%

The implied stock swing risk from the option market is extremeley tight in the next 30 calendar days for Southcross Energy Partners, L.P. (NYSE:SXE) relative to the average in the last year. But, even though the IV30 percentile is below 50, other critical volatility measures that we discuss below point to elevated swing price risk.
Further, if we look backwards, the stock has a realized 30-day historical volatility, called the HV30, of 66.6%.




We have an unusual situation now where the IV30 is extremely depressed relative to the past, but even with that risk pricing, the option market reflects the likelihood of more stock movement in the next 30-days than it has in the last 30-days. Let's turn to a chart to see what's going on.
 
Note how similar the forward risk for Southcross Energy Partners, L.P. is priced (72.9%) compared to what happened just in the last 30-days (66.6%).

Southcross Energy Partners, L.P. Risk Rating
The SXE risk rating is at 4, where the rating goes from one (the lowest risk) to five (the highest risk). The driving factors for the 4 rating are:

The IV30 is below the 20th percentile.
The IV30 is above 70%.
The HV30 is below the 20th percentile.
The stock has moved +111.4% over the last 3-months which does indicate some elevated risk.