Option Market Alert: Shoe Carnival Inc Implied Price Swing Hits An Inflection Point

Shoe Carnival Inc (NASDAQ:SCVL) Risk Hits An Inflection Point

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No Risk Alert Here: Before we dive into any analysis we simply note that Shoe Carnival Inc (NASDAQ:SCVL) risk is neither elevated nor depressed. We'll detail it below -- but that's the lede -- the option market is in a holding period with an IV30 of 43.97% verus the IV30 of the S&P 500 at 11.15%. You might say that the post it note for Shoe Carnival Inc would read, "holding pattern." The annual high for Shoe Carnival Inc IV30 is 60.09%.

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This is a proprietary risk rating and risk alert system that looks forward for the next month -- or really 30 days to be exact -- and that includes weekends. The system is based on multiple interactions of data points, many of which come directly from the option market for Shoe Carnival Inc (NASDAQ:SCVL) . The creator of this model is Capital Market Laboratories (

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In the "Why This Matters" section at the end of this article on Shoe Carnival Inc we're going to take a step back and show in great specificity that there is actually a lot less "luck" in successful option trading than many people know. The whole concept of an "option trading expert" is vastly over complicated and we'll talk about how superior returns are earned.

But first, let's turn back to SCVL and the company's risk rating:

We also take a peek at the implied vol for the Consumer Staples ETF (XLP), our broad based proxy for SCVL.

S&P 500 IV30     11.15%
Nasdaq 100 IV30     12.44%
XLP IV30     10.98%

SCVL HV 30     33.19%
SCVL Current IV30     43.97%
52 Week Low IV30     31.87%
52 Week High IV30     60.09%

The implied price swing risk as reflected by the option market has hit an inflection point relative to the company's past. The option market reflects a 95% confidence interval stock price range of ($23.10, $28.20) within the next 30 calendar days.

The IV30® is the implied price swing risk reflected by the option market in the stock price for the next 30 calendar days -- it's forward looking. Shoe Carnival Inc shows an IV30 of 44.0%, which is an inflection point for the company relative to its past.

The option market for SCVL has shown an IV30 annual low of 31.9% and an annual high of 60.1%, meaning that SCVL is at the 43% percentile right now. Here's a table of the data before we dig into the implied price swing risk rating further.

Current IV30    
Low IV30    
High IV30   
44.0% 31.9% 60.1%

The implied stock swing risk from the option market has created a range which is tighter in the next 30 calendar days for Shoe Carnival Inc (NASDAQ:SCVL) than it has been on average for the last year on average.
Further, if we look backwards, the stock has a realized 30-day historical volatility, called the HV30, of 33.19%.

We have an unusual situation now where the IV30 is depressed relative to the past, but even with that risk pricing, the option market reflects the likelihood of a greater stock movement in the next 30-days than the stock has realized in the last 30-days. Let's turn to a chart to see what's going on.
Note how much higher the forward looking stock swing price risk for Shoe Carnival Inc is priced (44.0%) compared to what happened just in the last 30-days (33.2%).

Shoe Carnival Inc Risk Rating
The SCVL risk rating is at 3, where the rating goes from one (the lowest risk) to five (the highest risk). The driving factors for the 3 rating are:

The IV30 is below the annual average.
The IV30 is above 40%.
The HV30 is below the annual average.
The IV30 is above the HV30.
The stock has moved just +1.0% over the last 3-months which does indicate some depressed risk.