Option Market Alert Sage Therapeutics Inc Implied Price Swing Hits An Escalated Level

Option Market Alert: Sage Therapeutics Inc Implied Price Swing Hits An Escalated Level

Sage Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:SAGE) Risk Hits An Escalated Level

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Risk Alert: Before we dive into any analysis we simply note that Sage Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:SAGE) risk is elevated. We'll detail it below -- but that's the lede -- the option market is starting to flash those neon lights that signal "risk is rising" with an IV30 of 80.23% verus the IV30 of the S&P 500 at 11.15%. The annual high for Sage Therapeutics Inc IV30 is 140.24%.

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This is a proprietary risk rating and risk alert system that looks forward for the next month -- or really 30 days to be exact -- and that includes weekends. The system is based on multiple interactions of data points, many of which come directly from the option market for Sage Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:SAGE) . The creator of this model is Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz.com).

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In the "Why This Matters" section at the end of this article on Sage Therapeutics Inc we're going to take a step back and show in great specificity that there is actually a lot less "luck" in successful option trading than many people know. The whole concept of an "option trading expert" is vastly over complicated and we'll talk about how superior returns are earned.

But first, let's turn back to SAGE and the company's risk rating:

We also take a peek at the implied vol for the Health Care ETF (XLV), our broad based proxy for SAGE.

S&P 500 IV30     11.15%
Nasdaq 100 IV30     12.44%
XLV IV30     11.89%

SAGE HV 30     50.11%
SAGE Current IV30     80.23%
52 Week Low IV30     47.78%
52 Week High IV30     140.24%

The implied price swing risk as reflected by the option market has hit an escalated level relative to the company's past. The option market reflects a 95% confidence interval stock price range of ($58.80, $85.20) within the next 30 calendar days.

The IV30® is the implied price swing risk reflected by the option market in the stock price for the next 30 calendar days -- it's forward looking. Sage Therapeutics Inc shows an IV30 of 80.2%, which is an escalated level for the company relative to its past.

The option market for SAGE has shown an IV30 annual low of 47.8% and an annual high of 140.2%, meaning that SAGE is at the 35% percentile right now. Here's a table of the data before we dig into the implied price swing risk rating further.

Current IV30    
Low IV30    
High IV30   
80.2% 47.8% 140.2%

The implied stock swing risk from the option market has created a range which is tighter in the next 30 calendar days for Sage Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:SAGE) than it has been on average for the last year on average. But, even though the IV30 percentile is below 50, other critical volatility measures that we discuss below point to substantially elevated swing price risk.
Further, if we look backwards, the stock has a realized 30-day historical volatility, called the HV30, of 50.11%.

We have an unusual situation now where the IV30 is depressed relative to the past, but even with that risk pricing, the option market reflects the likelihood of a greater stock movement in the next 30-days than the stock has realized in the last 30-days. Let's turn to a chart to see what's going on.
Note how much higher the forward looking stock swing price risk for Sage Therapeutics Inc is priced (80.2%) compared to what happened just in the last 30-days (50.1%).

Sage Therapeutics Inc Risk Rating
The SAGE risk rating is at 4.5, where the rating goes from one (the lowest risk) to five (the highest risk). The driving factors for the 4.5 rating are:

The IV30 is below the annual average.
The IV30 is above 80%.
The HV30 is below the annual average.
The IV30 is above the HV30.
The stock has moved +35.3% over the last 3-months which does indicate some elevated risk.