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Option Market Alert: Ryerson Holding Corporation Implied Price Swing Hits An Elevated Level




Ryerson Holding Corporation (NYSE:RYI) Risk Hits An Elevated Level

Date Published:

Risk Alert: Before we dive into any analysis we simply note that Ryerson Holding Corporation (NYSE:RYI) risk is elevated. We'll detail it below -- but that's the lede -- the option market is starting to flash those neon lights that signal "risk is rising" with an IV30 of 73.98% verus the IV30 of the S&P 500 at 11.15%. The annual high for Ryerson Holding Corporation IV30 is 99.03%.



To skip ahead of this risk alert and see if buying or selling options has been a winner in Ryerson Holding Corporation, you can go here: Geting serious about option trading.

PREFACE
This is a proprietary risk rating and risk alert system that looks forward for the next month -- or really 30 days to be exact -- and that includes weekends. The system is based on multiple interactions of data points, many of which come directly from the option market for Ryerson Holding Corporation (NYSE:RYI) . The creator of this model is Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz.com).


Option trading isn't about luck -- this four minute video will change your trading life forever: Option Trading and Truth

In the "Why This Matters" section at the end of this article on Ryerson Holding Corporation we're going to take a step back and show in great specificity that there is actually a lot less "luck" in successful option trading than many people know. The whole concept of an "option trading expert" is vastly over complicated and we'll talk about how superior returns are earned.

But first, let's turn back to RYI and the company's risk rating:

We also take a peek at the implied vol for the Materials ETF (XLB), our broad based proxy for RYI.





SNAPSHOT SUMMARY
S&P 500 IV30     11.15%
Nasdaq 100 IV30     12.44%
XLB IV30     14.4%

RYI HV 30     71.01%
RYI Current IV30     73.98%
52 Week Low IV30     56.12%
52 Week High IV30     99.03%


The implied price swing risk as reflected by the option market has hit an elevated level relative to the company's past. The option market reflects a 95% confidence interval stock price range of ($10.50, $14.80) within the next 30 calendar days.

RYI OPTION MARKET IMPLIED PRICE SWING RISK
The IV30® is the implied price swing risk reflected by the option market in the stock price for the next 30 calendar days -- it's forward looking. Ryerson Holding Corporation shows an IV30 of 74.0%, which is an elevated level for the company relative to its past.

The option market for RYI has shown an IV30 annual low of 56.1% and an annual high of 99.0%, meaning that RYI is at the 42% percentile right now. Here's a table of the data before we dig into the implied price swing risk rating further.

RYI
Current IV30    
RYI
Low IV30    
RYI
High IV30   
74.0% 56.1% 99.0%

The implied stock swing risk from the option market has created a range which is tighter in the next 30 calendar days for Ryerson Holding Corporation (NYSE:RYI) than it has been on average for the last year on average. But, even though the IV30 percentile is below 50, other critical volatility measures that we discuss below point to elevated swing price risk.
Further, if we look backwards, the stock has a realized 30-day historical volatility, called the HV30, of 71.01%.




We have an unusual situation now where the IV30 is depressed relative to the past, but even with that risk pricing, the option market reflects the likelihood of a greater stock movement in the next 30-days than the stock has realized in the last 30-days. Let's turn to a chart to see what's going on.
 
Note how similar the forward risk for Ryerson Holding Corporation is priced (74.0%) compared to what happened just in the last 30-days (71.0%).

Ryerson Holding Corporation Risk Rating
The RYI risk rating is at 4, where the rating goes from one (the lowest risk) to five (the highest risk). The driving factors for the 4 rating are:

The IV30 is below the annual average.
The IV30 is above 70%.
The HV30 is below the annual average.
The HV30 is above 70%.
The stock has moved +17.1% over the last 3-months which does indicate some elevated risk.