New Relic Inc (NYSE:NEWR) Risk Hits An Inflection PointDate Published: 2017-04-21
No Risk Alert Here: Before we dive into any analysis we simply note that New Relic Inc (NYSE:NEWR) risk is neither elevated nor depressed. We'll detail it below -- but that's the lede -- the option market is in a holding period with an IV30 of 42.36% verus the IV30 of the S&P 500 at 11.15%. You might say that the post it note for New Relic Inc would read, "holding pattern." The annual high for New Relic Inc IV30 is 65.65%.
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This is a proprietary risk rating and risk alert system that looks forward for the next month -- or really 30 days to be exact -- and that includes weekends. The system is based on multiple interactions of data points, many of which come directly from the option market for New Relic Inc (NYSE:NEWR) . The creator of this model is Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz.com).
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In the "Why This Matters" section at the end of this article on New Relic Inc we're going to take a step back and show in great specificity that there is actually a lot less "luck" in successful option trading than many people know. The whole concept of an "option trading expert" is vastly over complicated and we'll talk about how superior returns are earned.
But first, let's turn back to NEWR and the company's risk rating:
We also take a peek at the implied vol for the Technology ETF (XLK), our broad based proxy for NEWR.
|S&P 500 IV30||11.15%|
|Nasdaq 100 IV30||12.44%|
|NEWR HV 30||25.9%|
|NEWR Current IV30||42.36%|
|52 Week Low IV30||32.45%|
|52 Week High IV30||65.65%|
The implied price swing risk as reflected by the option market has hit an inflection point relative to the company's past. The option market reflects a 95% confidence interval stock price range of ($35.80, $43.50) within the next 30 calendar days.
NEWR OPTION MARKET IMPLIED PRICE SWING RISK
The IV30® is the implied price swing risk reflected by the option market in the stock price for the next 30 calendar days -- it's forward looking. New Relic Inc shows an IV30 of 42.4%, which is an inflection point for the company relative to its past.
The option market for NEWR has shown an IV30 annual low of 32.5% and an annual high of 65.7%, meaning that NEWR is at the 30% percentile right now. Here's a table of the data before we dig into the implied price swing risk rating further.
The implied stock swing risk from the option market has created a range which is tighter in the next 30 calendar days for New Relic Inc (NYSE:NEWR) than it has been on average for the last year on average.
We have an unusual situation now where the IV30 is depressed relative to the past, but even with that risk pricing, the option market reflects the likelihood of a greater stock movement in the next 30-days than the stock has realized in the last 30-days. Let's turn to a chart to see what's going on.
New Relic Inc Risk Rating
The NEWR risk rating is at 3, where the rating goes from one (the lowest risk) to five (the highest risk). The driving factors for the 3 rating are:
↪ The IV30 is below the annual average.
↪ The IV30 is above 40%.
↪ The HV30 is below the annual average.
↪ The HV30 is below 30%.
↪ The IV30 is above the HV30.
↪ The stock has moved +21.5% over the last 3-months which does indicate some elevated risk.