Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (NYSE:VAC) Risk Hits An Amplified LevelDate Published: 2017-04-21
No Risk Alert Here: Before we dive into any analysis we simply note that Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (NYSE:VAC) risk is neither elevated nor depressed. We'll detail it below -- but that's the lede -- the option market is in a holding period with an IV30 of 40.64% verus the IV30 of the S&P 500 at 11.15%. You might say that the post it note for Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation would read, "holding pattern." The annual high for Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation IV30 is 50.1%.
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This is a proprietary risk rating and risk alert system that looks forward for the next month -- or really 30 days to be exact -- and that includes weekends. The system is based on multiple interactions of data points, many of which come directly from the option market for Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (NYSE:VAC) . The creator of this model is Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz.com).
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But first, let's turn back to VAC and the company's risk rating:
We also take a peek at the implied vol for the Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY), our broad based proxy for VAC.
|S&P 500 IV30||11.15%|
|Nasdaq 100 IV30||12.44%|
|VAC HV 30||17.34%|
|VAC Current IV30||40.64%|
|52 Week Low IV30||25.41%|
|52 Week High IV30||50.1%|
The implied price swing risk as reflected by the option market has hit an amplified level relative to the company's past. The option market reflects a 95% confidence interval stock price range of ($92.00, $110.80) within the next 30 calendar days.
VAC OPTION MARKET IMPLIED PRICE SWING RISK
The IV30® is the implied price swing risk reflected by the option market in the stock price for the next 30 calendar days -- it's forward looking. Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation shows an IV30 of 40.6%, which is an amplified level for the company relative to its past.
The option market for VAC has shown an IV30 annual low of 25.4% and an annual high of 50.1%, meaning that VAC is at the 62% percentile right now. Here's a table of the data before we dig into the implied price swing risk rating further.
The implied stock swing risk from the option market reflects a wider range in the next 30 calendar days for Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (NYSE:VAC) than it has on on average.
We have a situation now where not only is the IV30 elevated relative to the past, but the option market reflects the likelihood of yet more stock movement in the next 30-days than it has in the last 30-days. Let's turn to a chart to see what's going on.
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Risk Rating
The VAC risk rating is at 3.5, where the rating goes from one (the lowest risk) to five (the highest risk). The driving factors for the 3.5 rating are:
↪ The IV30 is above the annual average.
↪ The IV30 is above 40%.
↪ The HV30 is below the 20th percentile.
↪ The HV30 is below 30%.
↪ The IV30 is above the HV30.
↪ The stock has moved +22.5% over the last 3-months which does indicate some elevated risk.