Option Market Alert Fortinet Inc Implied Price Swing Hits An Amplified Level

Option Market Alert: Fortinet Inc Implied Price Swing Hits An Amplified Level

Fortinet Inc (NASDAQ:FTNT) Risk Hits An Amplified Level

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No Risk Alert Here: Before we dive into any analysis we simply note that Fortinet Inc (NASDAQ:FTNT) risk is neither elevated nor depressed. We'll detail it below -- but that's the lede -- the option market is in a holding period with an IV30 of 40.38% verus the IV30 of the S&P 500 at 11.15%. You might say that the post it note for Fortinet Inc would read, "holding pattern." The annual high for Fortinet Inc IV30 is 55.75%.

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This is a proprietary risk rating and risk alert system that looks forward for the next month -- or really 30 days to be exact -- and that includes weekends. The system is based on multiple interactions of data points, many of which come directly from the option market for Fortinet Inc (NASDAQ:FTNT) . The creator of this model is Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz.com).

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In the "Why This Matters" section at the end of this article on Fortinet Inc we're going to take a step back and show in great specificity that there is actually a lot less "luck" in successful option trading than many people know. The whole concept of an "option trading expert" is vastly over complicated and we'll talk about how superior returns are earned.

But first, let's turn back to FTNT and the company's risk rating:

We also take a peek at the implied vol for the Technology ETF (XLK), our broad based proxy for FTNT.

S&P 500 IV30     11.15%
Nasdaq 100 IV30     12.44%
XLK IV30     12.46%

FTNT HV 30     20.46%
FTNT Current IV30     40.38%
52 Week Low IV30     24.88%
52 Week High IV30     55.75%

The implied price swing risk as reflected by the option market has hit an amplified level relative to the company's past. The option market reflects a 95% confidence interval stock price range of ($35.50, $42.70) within the next 30 calendar days.

The IV30® is the implied price swing risk reflected by the option market in the stock price for the next 30 calendar days -- it's forward looking. Fortinet Inc shows an IV30 of 40.4%, which is an amplified level for the company relative to its past.

The option market for FTNT has shown an IV30 annual low of 24.9% and an annual high of 55.8%, meaning that FTNT is at the 50% percentile right now. Here's a table of the data before we dig into the implied price swing risk rating further.

Current IV30    
Low IV30    
High IV30   
40.4% 24.9% 55.8%

The implied stock swing risk from the option market reflects a wider range in the next 30 calendar days for Fortinet Inc (NASDAQ:FTNT) than it has on on average.
Further, if we look backwards, the stock has a realized 30-day historical volatility, called the HV30, of 20.46%.

We have a situation now where not only is the IV30 elevated relative to the past, but the option market reflects the likelihood of yet more stock movement in the next 30-days than it has in the last 30-days. Let's turn to a chart to see what's going on.
Note how much higher the forward looking stock swing price risk for Fortinet Inc is priced (40.4%) compared to what happened just in the last 30-days (20.5%).

Fortinet Inc Risk Rating
The FTNT risk rating is at 3.5, where the rating goes from one (the lowest risk) to five (the highest risk). The driving factors for the 3.5 rating are:

The IV30 is above the annual average.
The IV30 is above 40%.
The HV30 is below the annual average.
The HV30 is below 30%.
The IV30 is above the HV30.
The stock has moved +20.9% over the last 3-months which does indicate some elevated risk.