Option Market Alert Energizer Holdings Inc Implied Price Swing Hits An Inflection Point

Option Market Alert: Energizer Holdings Inc Implied Price Swing Hits An Inflection Point

Energizer Holdings Inc (NYSE:ENR) Risk Hits An Inflection Point

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No Risk Alert Here: Before we dive into any analysis we simply note that Energizer Holdings Inc (NYSE:ENR) risk is neither elevated nor depressed. We'll detail it below -- but that's the lede -- the option market is in a holding period with an IV30 of 35.1% verus the IV30 of the S&P 500 at 11.15%. You might say that the post it note for Energizer Holdings Inc would read, "holding pattern." The annual high for Energizer Holdings Inc IV30 is 52.47%.

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This is a proprietary risk rating and risk alert system that looks forward for the next month -- or really 30 days to be exact -- and that includes weekends. The system is based on multiple interactions of data points, many of which come directly from the option market for Energizer Holdings Inc (NYSE:ENR) . The creator of this model is Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz.com).

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In the "Why This Matters" section at the end of this article on Energizer Holdings Inc we're going to take a step back and show in great specificity that there is actually a lot less "luck" in successful option trading than many people know. The whole concept of an "option trading expert" is vastly over complicated and we'll talk about how superior returns are earned.

But first, let's turn back to ENR and the company's risk rating:

We also take a peek at the implied vol for the Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY), our broad based proxy for ENR.

S&P 500 IV30     11.15%
Nasdaq 100 IV30     12.44%
XLY IV30     12.1%

ENR HV 30     13.91%
ENR Current IV30     35.1%
52 Week Low IV30     21.52%
52 Week High IV30     52.47%

The implied price swing risk as reflected by the option market has hit an inflection point relative to the company's past. The option market reflects a 95% confidence interval stock price range of ($54.20, $63.70) within the next 30 calendar days.

The IV30® is the implied price swing risk reflected by the option market in the stock price for the next 30 calendar days -- it's forward looking. Energizer Holdings Inc shows an IV30 of 35.1%, which is an inflection point for the company relative to its past.

The option market for ENR has shown an IV30 annual low of 21.5% and an annual high of 52.5%, meaning that ENR is at the 44% percentile right now. Here's a table of the data before we dig into the implied price swing risk rating further.

Current IV30    
Low IV30    
High IV30   
35.1% 21.5% 52.5%

The implied stock swing risk from the option market has created a range which is tighter in the next 30 calendar days for Energizer Holdings Inc (NYSE:ENR) than it has been on average for the last year on average.
Further, if we look backwards, the stock has a realized 30-day historical volatility, called the HV30, of 13.91%.

We have an unusual situation now where the IV30 is depressed relative to the past, but even with that risk pricing, the option market reflects the likelihood of a greater stock movement in the next 30-days than the stock has realized in the last 30-days. Let's turn to a chart to see what's going on.
Note how much higher the forward looking stock swing price risk for Energizer Holdings Inc is priced (35.1%) compared to what happened just in the last 30-days (13.9%).

Energizer Holdings Inc Risk Rating
The ENR risk rating is at 3, where the rating goes from one (the lowest risk) to five (the highest risk). The driving factors for the 3 rating are:

The IV30 is below the annual average.
The HV30 is below the 20th percentile.
The HV30 is below 30%.
The IV30 is above the HV30.
The stock has moved +21.4% over the last 3-months which does indicate some elevated risk.