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Option Market Alert: Cognex Corporation Implied Price Swing Hits An Inflection Point




Cognex Corporation (NASDAQ:CGNX) Risk Hits An Inflection Point

Date Published:

No Risk Alert Here: Before we dive into any analysis we simply note that Cognex Corporation (NASDAQ:CGNX) risk is neither elevated nor depressed. We'll detail it below -- but that's the lede -- the option market is in a holding period with an IV30 of 38.16% verus the IV30 of the S&P 500 at 11.15%. You might say that the post it note for Cognex Corporation would read, "holding pattern." The annual high for Cognex Corporation IV30 is 49.13%.



To skip ahead and see if buying or selling options has been a winner in Cognex Corporation, you can go here: Geting serious about option trading.

PREFACE
This is a proprietary risk rating and risk alert system that looks forward for the next month -- or really 30 days to be exact -- and that includes weekends. The system is based on multiple interactions of data points, many of which come directly from the option market for Cognex Corporation (NASDAQ:CGNX) . The creator of this model is Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz.com).


Option trading isn't about luck -- this four minute video will change your trading life forever: Option Trading and Truth

In the "Why This Matters" section at the end of this article on Cognex Corporation we're going to take a step back and show in great specificity that there is actually a lot less "luck" in successful option trading than many people know. The whole concept of an "option trading expert" is vastly over complicated and we'll talk about how superior returns are earned.

But first, let's turn back to CGNX and the company's risk rating:

We also take a peek at the implied vol for the Technology ETF (XLK), our broad based proxy for CGNX.





SNAPSHOT SUMMARY
S&P 500 IV30     11.15%
Nasdaq 100 IV30     12.44%
XLK IV30     12.46%

CGNX HV 30     18.81%
CGNX Current IV30     38.16%
52 Week Low IV30     23.08%
52 Week High IV30     49.13%


The implied price swing risk as reflected by the option market has hit an inflection point relative to the company's past. The option market reflects a 95% confidence interval stock price range of ($75.80, $90.30) within the next 30 calendar days.

CGNX OPTION MARKET IMPLIED PRICE SWING RISK
The IV30® is the implied price swing risk reflected by the option market in the stock price for the next 30 calendar days -- it's forward looking. Cognex Corporation shows an IV30 of 38.2%, which is an inflection point for the company relative to its past.

The option market for CGNX has shown an IV30 annual low of 23.1% and an annual high of 49.1%, meaning that CGNX is at the 58% percentile right now. Here's a table of the data before we dig into the implied price swing risk rating further.

CGNX
Current IV30    
CGNX
Low IV30    
CGNX
High IV30   
38.2% 23.1% 49.1%

The implied stock swing risk from the option market reflects a wider range in the next 30 calendar days for Cognex Corporation (NASDAQ:CGNX) than it has on on average.
Further, if we look backwards, the stock has a realized 30-day historical volatility, called the HV30, of 18.81%.




We have a situation now where not only is the IV30 elevated relative to the past, but the option market reflects the likelihood of yet more stock movement in the next 30-days than it has in the last 30-days. Let's turn to a chart to see what's going on.
 
Note how much higher the forward looking stock swing price risk for Cognex Corporation is priced (38.2%) compared to what happened just in the last 30-days (18.8%).

Cognex Corporation Risk Rating
The CGNX risk rating is at 3, where the rating goes from one (the lowest risk) to five (the highest risk). The driving factors for the 3 rating are:

The IV30 is above the annual average.
The HV30 is below the 20th percentile.
The HV30 is below 30%.
The IV30 is above the HV30.
The stock has moved +28.4% over the last 3-months which does indicate some elevated risk.