news.cmlviz.com
menu
share

Option Market Alert: China Lodging Group, Limited Implied Price Swing Hits An Amplified Level




China Lodging Group, Limited (NASDAQ:HTHT) Risk Hits An Amplified Level

Date Published:

No Risk Alert Here: Before we dive into any analysis we simply note that China Lodging Group, Limited (NASDAQ:HTHT) risk is neither elevated nor depressed. We'll detail it below -- but that's the lede -- the option market is in a holding period with an IV30 of 42.84% verus the IV30 of the S&P 500 at 11.15%. You might say that the post it note for China Lodging Group, Limited would read, "holding pattern." The annual high for China Lodging Group, Limited IV30 is 47.07%.



To skip ahead and see if buying or selling options has been a winner in China Lodging Group, Limited, you can go here: Geting serious about option trading.

PREFACE
This is a proprietary risk rating and risk alert system that looks forward for the next month -- or really 30 days to be exact -- and that includes weekends. The system is based on multiple interactions of data points, many of which come directly from the option market for China Lodging Group, Limited (NASDAQ:HTHT) . The creator of this model is Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz.com).


Option trading isn't about luck -- this three minute video will change your trading life forever: Option Trading and Truth


In the "Why This Matters" section at the end of this article on China Lodging Group, Limited we're going to take a step back and show in great specificity that there is actually a lot less "luck" in successful option trading than many people know. The whole concept of an "option trading expert" is vastly over complicated and we'll talk about how superior returns are earned.

But first, let's turn back to HTHT and the company's risk rating:

We also take a peek at the implied vol for the Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY), our broad based proxy for HTHT.





SNAPSHOT SUMMARY
S&P 500 IV30     11.15%
Nasdaq 100 IV30     12.44%
XLY IV30     12.1%

HTHT HV 30     38.88%
HTHT Current IV30     42.84%
52 Week Low IV30     29.32%
52 Week High IV30     47.07%


The implied price swing risk as reflected by the option market has hit an amplified level relative to the company's past. The option market reflects a 95% confidence interval stock price range of ($60.10, $73.10) within the next 30 calendar days.

HTHT OPTION MARKET IMPLIED PRICE SWING RISK
The IV30® is the implied price swing risk reflected by the option market in the stock price for the next 30 calendar days -- it's forward looking. China Lodging Group, Limited shows an IV30 of 42.8%, which is an amplified level for the company relative to its past.

The option market for HTHT has shown an IV30 annual low of 29.3% and an annual high of 47.1%, meaning that HTHT is at the 76% percentile right now. Here's a table of the data before we dig into the implied price swing risk rating further.

HTHT
Current IV30    
HTHT
Low IV30    
HTHT
High IV30   
42.8% 29.3% 47.1%

The implied stock swing risk from the option market reflects a wider range in the next 30 calendar days for China Lodging Group, Limited (NASDAQ:HTHT) than it has on on average.
Further, if we look backwards, the stock has a realized 30-day historical volatility, called the HV30, of 38.88%.




We have a situation now where not only is the IV30 elevated relative to the past, but the option market reflects the likelihood of yet more stock movement in the next 30-days than it has in the last 30-days. Let's turn to a chart to see what's going on.
 
Note how much higher the forward looking stock swing price risk for China Lodging Group, Limited is priced (42.8%) compared to what happened just in the last 30-days (38.9%).

China Lodging Group, Limited Risk Rating
The HTHT risk rating is at 3.5, where the rating goes from one (the lowest risk) to five (the highest risk). The driving factors for the 3.5 rating are:

The IV30 is above the annual average.
The IV30 is above 40%.
The HV30 is above the annual average.
The IV30 is above the HV30.
The stock has moved +32.1% over the last 3-months which does indicate some elevated risk.