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Option Market Alert: Brookdale Senior Living Inc Implied Price Swing Hits An Amplified Level




Brookdale Senior Living Inc (NYSE:BKD) Risk Hits An Amplified Level

Date Published:

No Risk Alert Here: Before we dive into any analysis we simply note that Brookdale Senior Living Inc (NYSE:BKD) risk is neither elevated nor depressed. We'll detail it below -- but that's the lede -- the option market is in a holding period with an IV30 of 49.7% verus the IV30 of the S&P 500 at 11.15%. You might say that the post it note for Brookdale Senior Living Inc would read, "holding pattern." The annual high for Brookdale Senior Living Inc IV30 is 63.39%.



To skip ahead and see if buying or selling options has been a winner in Brookdale Senior Living Inc, you can go here: Geting serious about option trading.

PREFACE
This is a proprietary risk rating and risk alert system that looks forward for the next month -- or really 30 days to be exact -- and that includes weekends. The system is based on multiple interactions of data points, many of which come directly from the option market for Brookdale Senior Living Inc (NYSE:BKD) . The creator of this model is Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz.com).


Option trading isn't about luck -- this four minute video will change your trading life forever: Option Trading and Truth

In the "Why This Matters" section at the end of this article on Brookdale Senior Living Inc we're going to take a step back and show in great specificity that there is actually a lot less "luck" in successful option trading than many people know. The whole concept of an "option trading expert" is vastly over complicated and we'll talk about how superior returns are earned.

But first, let's turn back to BKD and the company's risk rating:

We also take a peek at the implied vol for the Health Care ETF (XLV), our broad based proxy for BKD.





SNAPSHOT SUMMARY
S&P 500 IV30     11.15%
Nasdaq 100 IV30     12.44%
XLV IV30     11.89%

BKD HV 30     22.12%
BKD Current IV30     49.7%
52 Week Low IV30     34.67%
52 Week High IV30     63.39%


The implied price swing risk as reflected by the option market has hit an amplified level relative to the company's past. The option market reflects a 95% confidence interval stock price range of ($11.50, $14.50) within the next 30 calendar days.

BKD OPTION MARKET IMPLIED PRICE SWING RISK
The IV30® is the implied price swing risk reflected by the option market in the stock price for the next 30 calendar days -- it's forward looking. Brookdale Senior Living Inc shows an IV30 of 49.7%, which is an amplified level for the company relative to its past.

The option market for BKD has shown an IV30 annual low of 34.7% and an annual high of 63.4%, meaning that BKD is at the 52% percentile right now. Here's a table of the data before we dig into the implied price swing risk rating further.

BKD
Current IV30    
BKD
Low IV30    
BKD
High IV30   
49.7% 34.7% 63.4%

The implied stock swing risk from the option market reflects a wider range in the next 30 calendar days for Brookdale Senior Living Inc (NYSE:BKD) than it has on on average.
Further, if we look backwards, the stock has a realized 30-day historical volatility, called the HV30, of 22.12%.




We have a situation now where not only is the IV30 elevated relative to the past, but the option market reflects the likelihood of yet more stock movement in the next 30-days than it has in the last 30-days. Let's turn to a chart to see what's going on.
 
Note how much higher the forward looking stock swing price risk for Brookdale Senior Living Inc is priced (49.7%) compared to what happened just in the last 30-days (22.1%).

Brookdale Senior Living Inc Risk Rating
The BKD risk rating is at 3.5, where the rating goes from one (the lowest risk) to five (the highest risk). The driving factors for the 3.5 rating are:

The IV30 is above the annual average.
The IV30 is above 40%.
The HV30 is below the 20th percentile.
The HV30 is below 30%.
The IV30 is above the HV30.
The stock has moved -17.0% over the last 3-months which does indicate some elevated risk.