Option Market Alert: BofI Holding Inc Implied Price Swing Hits An Inflection Point

BofI Holding Inc (NASDAQ:BOFI) Risk Hits An Inflection Point

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No Risk Alert Here: Before we dive into any analysis we simply note that BofI Holding Inc (NASDAQ:BOFI) risk is neither elevated nor depressed. We'll detail it below -- but that's the lede -- the option market is in a holding period with an IV30 of 49.75% verus the IV30 of the S&P 500 at 11.15%. You might say that the post it note for BofI Holding Inc would read, "holding pattern." The annual high for BofI Holding Inc IV30 is 71.8%.

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This is a proprietary risk rating and risk alert system that looks forward for the next month -- or really 30 days to be exact -- and that includes weekends. The system is based on multiple interactions of data points, many of which come directly from the option market for BofI Holding Inc (NASDAQ:BOFI) . The creator of this model is Capital Market Laboratories (

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In the "Why This Matters" section at the end of this article on BofI Holding Inc we're going to take a step back and show in great specificity that there is actually a lot less "luck" in successful option trading than many people know. The whole concept of an "option trading expert" is vastly over complicated and we'll talk about how superior returns are earned.

But first, let's turn back to BOFI and the company's risk rating:

We also take a peek at the implied vol for the Financials ETF (XLF), our broad based proxy for BOFI.

S&P 500 IV30     11.15%
Nasdaq 100 IV30     12.44%
XLF IV30     17.29%

BOFI HV 30     36.71%
BOFI Current IV30     49.75%
52 Week Low IV30     37.12%
52 Week High IV30     71.8%

The implied price swing risk as reflected by the option market has hit an inflection point relative to the company's past. The option market reflects a 95% confidence interval stock price range of ($22.90, $28.80) within the next 30 calendar days.

The IV30® is the implied price swing risk reflected by the option market in the stock price for the next 30 calendar days -- it's forward looking. BofI Holding Inc shows an IV30 of 49.8%, which is an inflection point for the company relative to its past.

The option market for BOFI has shown an IV30 annual low of 37.1% and an annual high of 71.8%, meaning that BOFI is at the 36% percentile right now. Here's a table of the data before we dig into the implied price swing risk rating further.

Current IV30    
Low IV30    
High IV30   
49.8% 37.1% 71.8%

The implied stock swing risk from the option market has created a range which is tighter in the next 30 calendar days for BofI Holding Inc (NASDAQ:BOFI) than it has been on average for the last year on average.
Further, if we look backwards, the stock has a realized 30-day historical volatility, called the HV30, of 36.71%.

We have an unusual situation now where the IV30 is depressed relative to the past, but even with that risk pricing, the option market reflects the likelihood of a greater stock movement in the next 30-days than the stock has realized in the last 30-days. Let's turn to a chart to see what's going on.
Note how much higher the forward looking stock swing price risk for BofI Holding Inc is priced (49.8%) compared to what happened just in the last 30-days (36.7%).

BofI Holding Inc Risk Rating
The BOFI risk rating is at 3, where the rating goes from one (the lowest risk) to five (the highest risk). The driving factors for the 3 rating are:

The IV30 is below the annual average.
The IV30 is above 40%.
The HV30 is below the 20th percentile.
The IV30 is above the HV30.