Bellicum Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:BLCM) Risk Hits An Unsually High LevelDate Published: 2017-04-21
Risk Alert: Before we dive into any analysis we simply note that Bellicum Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:BLCM) risk is elevated. We'll detail it below -- but that's the lede -- the option market is starting to flash those neon lights that signal "risk is rising" with an IV30 of 68.69% verus the IV30 of the S&P 500 at 11.15%. The annual high for Bellicum Pharmaceuticals Inc IV30 is 112.1%.
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This is a proprietary risk rating and risk alert system that looks forward for the next month -- or really 30 days to be exact -- and that includes weekends. The system is based on multiple interactions of data points, many of which come directly from the option market for Bellicum Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:BLCM) . The creator of this model is Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz.com).
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In the "Why This Matters" section at the end of this article on Bellicum Pharmaceuticals Inc we're going to take a step back and show in great specificity that there is actually a lot less "luck" in successful option trading than many people know. The whole concept of an "option trading expert" is vastly over complicated and we'll talk about how superior returns are earned.
But first, let's turn back to BLCM and the company's risk rating:
We also take a peek at the implied vol for the Health Care ETF (XLV), our broad based proxy for BLCM.
|S&P 500 IV30||11.15%|
|Nasdaq 100 IV30||12.44%|
|BLCM HV 30||72.52%|
|BLCM Current IV30||68.69%|
|52 Week Low IV30||58.1%|
|52 Week High IV30||112.1%|
The implied price swing risk as reflected by the option market has hit an unsually high level relative to the company's past. The option market reflects a 95% confidence interval stock price range of ($11.90, $16.30) within the next 30 calendar days.
BLCM OPTION MARKET IMPLIED PRICE SWING RISK
The IV30® is the implied price swing risk reflected by the option market in the stock price for the next 30 calendar days -- it's forward looking. Bellicum Pharmaceuticals Inc shows an IV30 of 68.7%, which is an unsually high level for the company relative to its past.
The option market for BLCM has shown an IV30 annual low of 58.1% and an annual high of 112.1%, meaning that BLCM is at the 20% percentile right now. Here's a table of the data before we dig into the implied price swing risk rating further.
The implied stock swing risk from the option market is significantly tighter in the next 30 calendar days for Bellicum Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:BLCM) than it has been on average for the year. But, even though the IV30 percentile is below 50, other critical volatility measures that we discuss below point to elevated swing price risk.
We have a situation now where the IV30 is substantially depressed relative to the past resulting in a risk pricing of less stock movement in the next 30-days than the stock has see in the last 30-days. Let's turn to a chart to see what's going on.
Bellicum Pharmaceuticals Inc Risk Rating
The BLCM risk rating is at 4, where the rating goes from one (the lowest risk) to five (the highest risk). The driving factors for the 4 rating are:
↪ The IV30 is below the 20th percentile.
↪ The IV30 is above 60%.
↪ The HV30 is above the annual average.
↪ The HV30 is above 70%.
↪ The stock has moved +12.4% over the last 3-months which does indicate some elevated risk.