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Option Market Alert: Advaxis Inc Implied Price Swing Hits An Amplified Level




Advaxis Inc (NASDAQ:ADXS) Risk Hits An Amplified Level

Date Published:

No Risk Alert Here: Before we dive into any analysis we simply note that Advaxis Inc (NASDAQ:ADXS) risk is neither elevated nor depressed. We'll detail it below -- but that's the lede -- the option market is in a holding period with an IV30 of 71.58% verus the IV30 of the S&P 500 at 11.15%. You might say that the post it note for Advaxis Inc would read, "holding pattern." The annual high for Advaxis Inc IV30 is 106.17%.



To skip ahead and see if buying or selling options has been a winner in Advaxis Inc, you can go here: Geting serious about option trading.

PREFACE
This is a proprietary risk rating and risk alert system that looks forward for the next month -- or really 30 days to be exact -- and that includes weekends. The system is based on multiple interactions of data points, many of which come directly from the option market for Advaxis Inc (NASDAQ:ADXS) . The creator of this model is Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz.com).


Option trading isn't about luck -- this three minute video will change your trading life forever: Option Trading and Truth


In the "Why This Matters" section at the end of this article on Advaxis Inc we're going to take a step back and show in great specificity that there is actually a lot less "luck" in successful option trading than many people know. The whole concept of an "option trading expert" is vastly over complicated and we'll talk about how superior returns are earned.

But first, let's turn back to ADXS and the company's risk rating:

We also take a peek at the implied vol for the Health Care ETF (XLV), our broad based proxy for ADXS.





SNAPSHOT SUMMARY
S&P 500 IV30     11.15%
Nasdaq 100 IV30     12.44%
XLV IV30     11.89%

ADXS HV 30     42.21%
ADXS Current IV30     71.58%
52 Week Low IV30     66.24%
52 Week High IV30     106.17%


The implied price swing risk as reflected by the option market has hit an amplified level relative to the company's past. The option market reflects a 95% confidence interval stock price range of ($6.90, $9.60) within the next 30 calendar days.

ADXS OPTION MARKET IMPLIED PRICE SWING RISK
The IV30® is the implied price swing risk reflected by the option market in the stock price for the next 30 calendar days -- it's forward looking. Advaxis Inc shows an IV30 of 71.6%, which is an amplified level for the company relative to its past.

The option market for ADXS has shown an IV30 annual low of 66.2% and an annual high of 106.2%, meaning that ADXS is at the 13% percentile right now. Here's a table of the data before we dig into the implied price swing risk rating further.

ADXS
Current IV30    
ADXS
Low IV30    
ADXS
High IV30   
71.6% 66.2% 106.2%

The implied stock swing risk from the option market is significantly tighter in the next 30 calendar days for Advaxis Inc (NASDAQ:ADXS) than it has been on average for the year.
Further, if we look backwards, the stock has a realized 30-day historical volatility, called the HV30, of 42.21%.




We have an unusual situation now where the IV30 is substantially depressed relative to the past, but even with that risk pricing, the option market reflects the likelihood of more stock movement in the next 30-days than it has in the last 30-days. Let's turn to a chart to see what's going on.
 
Note how much higher the forward looking stock swing price risk for Advaxis Inc is priced (71.6%) compared to what happened just in the last 30-days (42.2%).

Advaxis Inc Risk Rating
The ADXS risk rating is at 3.5, where the rating goes from one (the lowest risk) to five (the highest risk). The driving factors for the 3.5 rating are:

The IV30 is below the 20th percentile.
The IV30 is above 70%.
The HV30 is below the 20th percentile.
The IV30 is above the HV30.
The stock has moved just 0.0% over the last 3-months which does indicate some depressed risk.