Stock Volatility Risk Alert: First Bancorp Price Volatility Hits An Escalated Level

First Bancorp (NASDAQ:FBNC) Price Volatility Hits An Escalated Level

Date Published:

Stock Risk Alert
Before we cover the full analysis we make a quick alert here that First Bancorp (NASDAQ:FBNC) has seen its stock price whip around at an unsually high level. We'll go through the details below -- but that's the lede -- the stock has been moving and the market's reaction is like a yellow post it note on the face of the ticker that reads "this is not equilibrium" with an HV20 of 21.21% verus the HV20 of the S&P 500 at 6.11%.

Another bit to this risk alert, which we cover in the article, is that while the historical volatility may be an unsually high level (the stock has been whipping around), the real question that needs to be answered for option traders is not if the HV20 is high, but rather if the implied volatility that is priced for the next 30-days accuratley reflects what we're about to see in the stock for the next month.

To jump forward and examine if owning or shorting options has been a positive trade in First Bancorp, you can go here: Getting serious about option trading.

This is a proprietary realized volatility rating created by Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz) based on a large number of data interactions for First Bancorp (NASDAQ:FBNC) . We examine the little used gem of daily stock volatility over a 20-day and 30-day trading period, as well as comparisons to the last year and the actual stock returns over the last three- and six-months and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices.

Option trading isn't about luck -- this four minute video will change your trading life forever: Option Trading and Truth

As a heads up, in the "Why This Matters" section at the end of this article on First Bancorp (NASDAQ:FBNC) , we're going to take a step back and show really clearly that there is actually a lot less "luck" in successful option trading than most people are aware of. This idea of an "option trading expert" is vastly over complicated so those with the information advantage can continue to profit at the expense of the rest.

But before that, let's turn back to FBNC. Here are the exact steps that led us to this rating, and whether it's a risk alert or a holding pattern.

FBNC Recent Price Volatility

Price volatility using proprietary measures has hit an unsually high level. Let's take a deep dive into some institutional level volatility measures for First Bancorp (NASDAQ:FBNC) .

First Bancorp Stock Performance
FBNC is up +1.5% over the last three months and up +42.5% over the last six months. The stock price is up +45.5% over the last year. The current stock price is $28.23.

FBNC Step 1: Stock Returns
The one-year stock return does not impact the volatility rating since we are looking at a shorter time horizon. However, the rating does examine the 3-month returns and the absolute difference between the 3-month and 6-month returns.

  The 3-month stock return of +1.5% is too small to impact the price volatility rating for FBNC.
  The expansive difference between the 3-month and 6-month stock returns has a fairly large impact on the price volatility rating for FBNC.

FBNC Step 2: Daily Price Volatility Level
The HV30® takes the stock's day to day historical volatility over the last 30-days and then annualizes it. The HV20 looks back over just 20-days -- a shorter time period. Here is the breakdown for First Bancorp (NASDAQ:FBNC) and how the day-by-day price historical volatilities have impacted the rating:

  The HV20 of 23.3% is low enough that it has a downward impact on FBNC's volatility rating.

FBNC Step 3: First Bancorp HV20 Compared to Indices
* The HV20 for FBNC is substantially larger than that for both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 which raises the volatility rating.

* The HV20 for FBNC is substantially larger than that for the Financials ETF (XLF) which raises the volatility rating.

Here is summary data in tabular and chart format.

   S&P 500
   NASDAQ 100
           23.3%    6.11%    7.36%    14.2%

FBNC Step 4: Daily Volatility Percentiles and Highs

We also examine the annual high of the HV30 in our rating but in this case the 52 week high in HV30 for FBNC is 29.0%, which is not enough to impact the price volatility rating.

Here is summary data in tabular and chart format.

HV30 High   
           23.3%    21.2%    29.0%

Final Price Volatility Percentile Level: FBNC
The final evolution of the volatility rating for First Bancorp is a comparison of the HV30 value relative to its past, which is neatly summarized in the percentile -- a scoring mechanism that goes from a low of 1 to a high of 100.

  The HV30 percentile for First Bancorp is 63%, which means the stock has seen elevated volatile price movement relative to its own past and that has a small impact on the price volatility rating.

First Bancorp Realized Volatility Percentiles