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Risk Malaise Alert in Option Market: Preferred Bank Implied Price Swing Hits A Substantially Lowered Level




Preferred Bank (NASDAQ:PFBC) Risk Hits A Substantially Lowered Level

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Risk Malaise Alert -- Not How You Might Think:
Before we dive into any analysis we simply note that Preferred Bank (NASDAQ:PFBC) risk is actually priced pretty low by the option market as of right now. We'll detail it below -- but that's the lede -- the option market is reflecting a sort of risk malaise, for now, an IV30 of 32.2% verus the IV30 of the S&P 500 at 10.69%. The annual high for Preferred Bank IV30 is 37.08% -- and we're below that level. The alert here is low vol.



One thing to note beyond the risk malaise alert, which we cover in the article, is that while implied volatility may be low, the real question that needs to be answered for option sellers is not if the impled vol is low, but rather if the realized volatility that is coming in the next 30 days will be lower than the option market is pricing.

To skip ahead of this risk alert and see if buying or selling options has been a winner in Preferred Bank, you can go here: Geting serious about option trading.

PREFACE
This is a proprietary risk rating and risk alert system that looks forward for the next month -- or really 30 days to be exact -- and that includes weekends. The system is based on multiple interactions of data points, many of which come directly from the option market for Preferred Bank (NASDAQ:PFBC) . The creator of this model is Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz.com).

Discover the power of applying science to your options trading in a free webinar:
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In the "Why This Matters" section at the end of this article on Preferred Bank we're going to take a step back and show in great specificity that there is actually a lot less "luck" in successful option trading than many people know. The whole concept of an "option trading expert" is vastly over complicated and we'll talk about how superior returns are earned.

But first, let's turn back to PFBC and the company's risk rating:

We also take a peek at the implied vol for the Financials ETF (XLF), our broad based proxy for PFBC.





SNAPSHOT SUMMARY
S&P 500 IV30     10.69%
Nasdaq 100 IV30     11.95%
XLF IV30     17.88%

PFBC HV 30     38.18%
PFBC Current IV30     32.2%
52 Week Low IV30     20.79%
52 Week High IV30     37.08%


The risk as reflected by the option market has hit a substantially lowered level relative to the company's past. The option market reflects a 95% confidence interval stock price range of ($46.70, $54.10) within the next 30 calendar days.

While the option market risk rating is on the low side, we note that companies in this situation are still susceptible to sudden stock move risk, it's simply the probability of that large stock move is depressed. Buyers of options and volatility may find these prices more attractive than at other times.

PFBC OPTION MARKET RISK
The IV30® is the risk reflected by the option market in the stock price for the next 30 calendar days -- it's forward looking. Preferred Bank shows an IV30 of 32.2%, which is a substantially lowered level for the company relative to its past.

The option market for PFBC has shown an IV30 annual low of 20.8% and an annual high of 37.1%, meaning that PFBC is at the 70% percentile right now. Here's a table of the data before we dig into the risk rating further.

PFBC
Current IV30    
PFBC
Low IV30    
PFBC
High IV30   
32.2% 20.8% 37.1%

The implied stock swing risk from the option market reflects a wider range in the next 30 calendar days for Preferred Bank (NASDAQ:PFBC) than it has on on average.
Further, if we look backwards, the stock has a realized 30-day historical volatility, called the HV30, of 38.18%.




We have a situation now where not only is the IV30 elevated relative to the past, but even with that risk pricing, the option market reflects the likelihood of less stock movement in the next 30-days than it has in the last 30-days. Let's turn to a chart to see what's going on.
 
Note how much lower the forward looking stock swing price risk for Preferred Bank is priced (32.2%) compared to what happened just in the last 30-days (38.2%).

Preferred Bank Risk Rating
The PFBC risk rating is at 2, where the rating goes from one (the lowest risk) to five (the highest risk). The driving factors for the 2 rating are:

The IV30 is above the annual average.
The HV30 is above the 80th percentile.
The IV30 is below the HV30.
The stock has moved just -1.8% over the last 3-months which does indicate some depressed risk.