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Risk Malaise Alert in Option Market: Fortune Brands Home & Security Inc Implied Price Swing Hits A Substantially Lowered Level




Fortune Brands Home & Security Inc (NYSE:FBHS) Risk Hits A Substantially Lowered Level

Date Published:

Risk Malaise Alert -- Not How You Might Think:
Before we dive into any analysis we simply note that Fortune Brands Home & Security Inc (NYSE:FBHS) risk is actually priced pretty low by the option market as of right now. We'll detail it below -- but that's the lede -- the option market is reflecting a sort of risk malaise, for now, an IV30 of 19.62% verus the IV30 of the S&P 500 at 10.69%. The annual high for Fortune Brands Home & Security Inc IV30 is 30.11% -- and we're below that level. The alert here is low vol.



One thing to note beyond the risk malaise alert, which we cover in the article, is that while implied volatility may be low, the real question that needs to be answered for option sellers is not if the impled vol is low, but rather if the realized volatility that is coming in the next 30 days will be lower than the option market is pricing.

To skip ahead of this risk alert and see if buying or selling options has been a winner in Fortune Brands Home & Security Inc, you can go here: Geting serious about option trading.

PREFACE
This is a proprietary risk rating and risk alert system that looks forward for the next month -- or really 30 days to be exact -- and that includes weekends. The system is based on multiple interactions of data points, many of which come directly from the option market for Fortune Brands Home & Security Inc (NYSE:FBHS) . The creator of this model is Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz.com).


Option trading isn't about luck -- this four minute video will change your trading life forever: Option Trading and Truth


In the "Why This Matters" section at the end of this article on Fortune Brands Home & Security Inc we're going to take a step back and show in great specificity that there is actually a lot less "luck" in successful option trading than many people know. The whole concept of an "option trading expert" is vastly over complicated and we'll talk about how superior returns are earned.

But first, let's turn back to FBHS and the company's risk rating:

We also take a peek at the implied vol for the Materials ETF (XLB), our broad based proxy for FBHS.





SNAPSHOT SUMMARY
S&P 500 IV30     10.69%
Nasdaq 100 IV30     11.95%
XLB IV30     12.7%

FBHS HV 30     14.27%
FBHS Current IV30     19.62%
52 Week Low IV30     17.21%
52 Week High IV30     30.11%


The risk as reflected by the option market has hit a substantially lowered level relative to the company's past. The option market reflects a 95% confidence interval stock price range of ($59.10, $64.60) within the next 30 calendar days.

While the option market risk rating is on the low side, we note that companies in this situation are still susceptible to sudden stock move risk, it's simply the probability of that large stock move is depressed. Buyers of options and volatility may find these prices more attractive than at other times.

FBHS OPTION MARKET RISK
The IV30® is the risk reflected by the option market in the stock price for the next 30 calendar days -- it's forward looking. Fortune Brands Home & Security Inc shows an IV30 of 19.6%, which is a substantially lowered level for the company relative to its past.

The option market for FBHS has shown an IV30 annual low of 17.2% and an annual high of 30.1%, meaning that FBHS is at the 19% percentile right now. Here's a table of the data before we dig into the risk rating further.

FBHS
Current IV30    
FBHS
Low IV30    
FBHS
High IV30   
19.6% 17.2% 30.1%

The implied stock swing risk from the option market is significantly tighter in the next 30 calendar days for Fortune Brands Home & Security Inc (NYSE:FBHS) than it has been on average for the year.
Further, if we look backwards, the stock has a realized 30-day historical volatility, called the HV30, of 14.27%.




We have an unusual situation now where the IV30 is substantially depressed relative to the past, but even with that risk pricing, the option market reflects the likelihood of more stock movement in the next 30-days than it has in the last 30-days. Let's turn to a chart to see what's going on.
 
Note how much higher the forward looking stock swing price risk for Fortune Brands Home & Security Inc is priced (19.6%) compared to what happened just in the last 30-days (14.3%).

Fortune Brands Home & Security Inc Risk Rating
The FBHS risk rating is at 1.5, where the rating goes from one (the lowest risk) to five (the highest risk). The driving factors for the 1.5 rating are:

The IV30 is below the 20th percentile.
The IV30 is below 30%.
The HV30 is below the 20th percentile.
The HV30 is below 30%.
The IV30 is above the HV30.
The stock has moved +12.9% over the last 3-months which does indicate some elevated risk.