Fortress Biotech Inc (NASDAQ:FBIO) Risk Hits An Extraordinary HighDate Published: 2017-03-24
Risk Alert: Before we dive into any analysis we simply note that Fortress Biotech Inc (NASDAQ:FBIO) risk is at an extremely elevated level. We'll detail it below -- but that's the lede -- the option market is flashing a neon sign that reads "risk is here" with an IV30 of 87.15% verus the IV30 of the S&P 500 at 11.18%.
One thing to note, which we cover in the article, is that while implied volatility may be high, the real question that needs to be answered for option traders is not if the impled vol is high, but rather if the realized volatility that is coming in the next 30 days will be higher or lower than the option market is pricing.
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This is a proprietary risk rating and risk alert system that looks forward for the next month -- or really 30 days to be exact -- and that includes weekends. The system is based on multiple interactions of data points, many of which come directly from the option market for Fortress Biotech Inc (NASDAQ:FBIO) . The creator of this model is Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz.com).
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In the "Why This Matters" section at the end of this article on Fortress Biotech Inc we're going to take a step back and show in great specificity that there is actually a lot less "luck" in successful option trading than many people know. The whole concept of an "option trading expert" is vastly over complicated and we'll talk about how superior returns are earned.
But first, let's turn back to FBIO and the company's risk rating:
We also take a peek at the implied vol for the Health Care ETF (XLV), our broad based proxy for FBIO.
|S&P 500 IV30||11.18%|
|Nasdaq 100 IV30||11.9%|
|FBIO HV 30||55.92%|
|FBIO Current IV30||87.15%|
|52 Week Low IV30||73.53%|
|52 Week High IV30||167.89%|
The risk as reflected by the option market has hit an extraordinary high relative to the company's past. The option market reflects a 95% confidence interval stock price range of ($2.80, $4.30) within the next 30 calendar days.
FBIO OPTION MARKET RISK
The IV30® is the risk reflected by the option market in the stock price for the next 30 calendar days -- it's forward looking. Fortress Biotech Inc shows an IV30 of 87.2%, which is an extraordinary high for the company relative to its past.
The option market for FBIO has shown an IV30 annual low of 73.5% and an annual high of 167.9%, meaning that FBIO is at the 14% percentile right now. Here's a table of the data before we dig into the risk rating further.
The implied stock swing risk from the option market is significantly tighter in the next 30 calendar days for Fortress Biotech Inc (NASDAQ:FBIO) than it has been on average for the year. But, even though the IV30 percentile is below 50, other critical volatility measures that we discuss below point to extreme stock swing price risk.
We have an unusual situation now where the IV30 is substantially depressed relative to the past, but even with that risk pricing, the option market reflects the likelihood of more stock movement in the next 30-days than it has in the last 30-days. Let's turn to a chart to see what's going on.
Fortress Biotech Inc Risk Rating
The FBIO risk rating is at 5, where the rating goes from one (the lowest risk) to five (the highest risk). The driving factors for the 5 rating are:
↪ The IV30 is below the 20th percentile.
↪ The IV30 is above 80%.
↪ The HV30 is below the annual average.
↪ The IV30 is above the HV30.
↪ The stock has moved +49.8% over the last 3-months which does indicate some elevated risk.