AllianceBernstein Holding L.P. (NYSE:AB) Risk Points versus Financials (XLF)Date Published: 2017-03-21
This is a scatter plot analysis of the critical risk points from the option market for AllianceBernstein Holding L.P. (NYSE:AB) compared to its own past and the Financials ETF. In order to examine the forward looking risk for AllianceBernstein Holding L.P. (NYSE:AB) the next 30-days, we must look to the option market.
Now, before we dive into the analysis on AB, we make one critical note since we're talking about options:
Option trading isn't about luck -- this four minute video will change your trading life forever: Option Trading and Truth
In the "Why This Matters" section at the end of this article on AllianceBernstein Holding L.P. (NYSE:AB) , we're going to take a step back and show in great specificity that there is actually a lot less "luck" in successful option trading than many people know.
But that's at the end, now let's jump back into the risk point charting and number crunching for AllianceBernstein Holding L.P. (NYSE:AB) . We start by noting that AB is in the diversified financials sector which means along with some other industries we also compare the company to the closest match we could find, which was the Financials ETF (XLF) as a proxy for AllianceBernstein Holding L.P..
We have highlighted the IV30® for XLF and for AB in the table below.
|CONTEXT: THE INDICES|
|S&P 500 (SPY)||IV30||8.97%|
|Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)||IV30||9.1%|
|Financials ETF (XLF)||IV30||13.46%|
|AllianceBernstein Holding L.P. (NYSE:AB)|
|AB 52 Week Low||IV30||18.41%|
|AB 52 Week High||IV30||37.19%|
|AllianceBernstein Holding L.P. Implied Risk Scatter Plot|
|(a new risk chart, built for option traders)|
Scatter Plot Risk Legend
The blue point is the current 30-day implied volatility for AllianceBernstein Holding L.P..
The black point is the current 30-day implied volatility for the Financials ETF (XLF).
The red point is the 52 week low in IV30® for AllianceBernstein Holding L.P..
The green point is the 52 week high in IV30® for AllianceBernstein Holding L.P..
The various other scatter plot points in the middle give us risk context outside of the diversified financials sector.
The IV30® is the risk reflected by the option market in the stock price for the next 30 calendar days.
* We can see that the risk as reflected by the option market for the next 30-days for AllianceBernstein Holding L.P. is in between the indices we have charted but is above the Financials ETF (XLF), which we use as a proxy for AllianceBernstein Holding L.P..
* We can see in the risk points chart above that the IV30 for AllianceBernstein Holding L.P. has collapsed to the annual low. In English, the blue point is at the same level as the red point which means the option market reflects less stock movement in the next 30-days than it has over the past year.
* For some context, we note that the annual range in IV30® for the Financials ETF is between [13.25%, 28.77%] while AllianceBernstein Holding L.P. has had a range of [18.41%, 37.19%].
Get this same analysis on any ticker here:
A New Kind of Risk Point Chart
This is chart was developed for the trader. It allows us to easily see where the forward looking risk for AllianceBernstein Holding L.P. (NYSE:AB) lies relative to the last year, and the various major stock groupings and the Diversified Financials sector without using time series data, which can confuse the information.
While the option market risk rating is on the low side, we note that companies in this situation are still susceptible to sudden stock move risk, it's simply the probability of that large stock move is depressed. Buyers of options and volatility may find these prices more attractive than at other times.