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Option Market Alert: First Bancorp Implied Price Swing Hits An Inflection Point




First Bancorp (NYSE:FBP) Risk Hits An Inflection Point

Date Published:

No Risk Alert Here: Before we dive into any analysis we simply note that First Bancorp (NYSE:FBP) risk is neither elevated nor depressed. We'll detail it below -- but that's the lede -- the option market is in a holding period with an IV30 of 45.02% verus the IV30 of the S&P 500 at 8.58%. You might say that the post it note for First Bancorp would read, "holding pattern." The annual high for First Bancorp IV30 is 101.65%.



To skip ahead and see if buying or selling options has been a winner in First Bancorp, you can go here: Geting serious about option trading.

PREFACE
This is a proprietary risk rating and risk alert system that looks forward for the next month -- or really 30 days to be exact -- and that includes weekends. The system is based on multiple interactions of data points, many of which come directly from the option market for First Bancorp (NYSE:FBP) . The creator of this model is Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz.com).


Option trading isn't about luck -- this four minute video will change your trading life forever: Option Trading and Truth

In the "Why This Matters" section at the end of this article on First Bancorp we're going to take a step back and show in great specificity that there is actually a lot less "luck" in successful option trading than many people know. The whole concept of an "option trading expert" is vastly over complicated and we'll talk about how superior returns are earned.

But first, let's turn back to FBP and the company's risk rating:

We also take a peek at the implied vol for the Financials ETF (XLF), our broad based proxy for FBP.





SNAPSHOT SUMMARY
S&P 500 IV30     8.58%
Nasdaq 100 IV30     9.52%
XLF IV30     13.63%

FBP HV 30     30.7%
FBP Current IV30     45.02%
52 Week Low IV30     39.23%
52 Week High IV30     101.65%


The implied price swing risk as reflected by the option market has hit an inflection point relative to the company's past. The option market reflects a 95% confidence interval stock price range of ($5.40, $6.60) within the next 30 calendar days.

FBP OPTION MARKET IMPLIED PRICE SWING RISK
The IV30® is the implied price swing risk reflected by the option market in the stock price for the next 30 calendar days -- it's forward looking. First Bancorp shows an IV30 of 45.0%, which is an inflection point for the company relative to its past.

The option market for FBP has shown an IV30 annual low of 39.2% and an annual high of 101.7%, meaning that FBP is at the 9% percentile right now. Here's a table of the data before we dig into the implied price swing risk rating further.

FBP
Current IV30    
FBP
Low IV30    
FBP
High IV30   
45.0% 39.2% 101.7%

The implied stock swing risk from the option market is extremeley tight in the next 30 calendar days for First Bancorp (NYSE:FBP) relative to the average in the last year.
Further, if we look backwards, the stock has a realized 30-day historical volatility, called the HV30, of 30.7%.




We have an unusual situation now where the IV30 is extremely depressed relative to the past, but even with that risk pricing, the option market reflects the likelihood of more stock movement in the next 30-days than it has in the last 30-days. Let's turn to a chart to see what's going on.
 
Note how much higher the forward looking stock swing price risk for First Bancorp is priced (45.0%) compared to what happened just in the last 30-days (30.7%).

First Bancorp Risk Rating
The FBP risk rating is at 3, where the rating goes from one (the lowest risk) to five (the highest risk). The driving factors for the 3 rating are:

The IV30 is below the 20th percentile.
The IV30 is above 40%.
The HV30 is below the 20th percentile.
The IV30 is above the HV30.