Flagstar Bancorp Inc (NYSE:FBC) Risk Hits A Deteriorated LevelDate Published: 2017-03-16
We're going to look at a proprietary risk rating for the next 30-days built by Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz) based on a large number of interactions of data points, many of which come directly from the option market for Flagstar Bancorp Inc (NYSE:FBC) .
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In the "Why This Matters" section at the end of this article on Flagstar Bancorp Inc (NYSE:FBC) we're going to take a step back and show in great specificity that there is actually a lot less "luck" in successful option trading than many people know. The whole concept of an "option trading expert" is vastly over complicated and we'll talk about how superior returns are earned.
But first, let's turn back to FBC and the company's risk rating:
We also take a peek at the implied vol for the Financials ETF (XLF), our broad based proxy for FBC.
|S&P 500 IV30||9%|
|Nasdaq 100 IV30||9.99%|
|FBC HV 30||40.56%|
|FBC Current IV30||26.04%|
|52 Week Low IV30||21.85%|
|52 Week High IV30||38.05%|
The risk as reflected by the option market has hit a deteriorated level relative to the company's past. The option market reflects a 95% confidence interval stock price range of ($26.00, $29.30) within the next 30 calendar days.
While the option market risk rating is on the low side, we note that companies in this situation are still susceptible to sudden stock move risk, it's simply the probability of that large stock move is depressed. Buyers of options and volatility may find these prices more attractive than at other times.
FBC OPTION MARKET RISK
The IV30® is the risk reflected by the option market in the stock price for the next 30 calendar days -- it's forward looking. Flagstar Bancorp Inc shows an IV30 of 26.0%, which is a deteriorated level for the company relative to its past.
The option market for FBC has shown an IV30 annual low of 21.9% and an annual high of 38.1%, meaning that FBC is at the 26% percentile right now. Here's a table of the data before we dig into the risk rating further.
The option market reflects less risk in the next 30 calendar days for Flagstar Bancorp Inc (NYSE:FBC) than on average.
We have a situation now where the IV30 is depressed relative to the past and at the same time the option market reflects the likelihood of a smaller stock movement in the next 30-days than the stock has realized in the last 30-days. Let's turn to a chart to see what's going on.
Flagstar Bancorp Inc Risk Rating
The FBC risk rating is at 2, where the rating goes from one (the lowest risk) to five (the highest risk). The driving factors for the 2 rating are:
↪ The IV30 is below the annual average.
↪ The IV30 is below 30%.
↪ The HV30 is above the 80th percentile.
↪ The IV30 is below the HV30.