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Fortress Biotech Inc Stock Volatility Hits An Unsually High Level




Fortress Biotech Inc (NASDAQ:FBIO) Stock Volatility Hits An Unsually High Level

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PREFACE
This is a proprietary realized volatility rating created by Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz) based on a large number of data interactions for Fortress Biotech Inc (NASDAQ:FBIO) . We examine the little used gem of daily stock volatility over a 20-day and 30-day trading period, as well as comparisons to the last year and the actual stock returns over the last three- and six-months and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices.


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But before that, let's turn back to FBIO. This is a four step process for computing the realized volatility risk. Here we go.

FBIO Recent Stock Volatility


Rating
Stock volatility using proprietary measures has hit an escalated level.

Volatility Alert
Fortress Biotech Inc is a small cap biotechnology-pharmaceutical company with very small revenue. This reality, in and of itself, makes FBIO susceptible to excessive risk as the stock may vascillate based on drug trial results, FDA decisions, new government pricing rules, and especially takeover rumors.

Losses
We also note that FBIO has negative GAAP earnings in the last year which makes it ever more susceptible to stock volatility. Here is a rolling annual volatility chart of the biotech index (IBB) versus the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500. Note how elevated the biotechnology sector volatility is (the pink curve) relative to the S&P 500.



Let's take a deep dive into some institutional level volatility measures for Fortress Biotech Inc (NASDAQ:FBIO) .

Fortress Biotech Inc Stock Performance
FBIO is up +43.1% over the last three months and up +31.5% over the last six months. The stock price is up +14.8% over the last year. The current stock price is $3.42.

FBIO Step 1: Stock Returns
The one-year stock return does not impact the volatility rating since we are looking at a shorter time horizon. However, the rating does examine the 3-month returns and the absolute difference between the 3-month and 6-month returns.

  The 3-month stock return of +43.1% has a large impact on the stock volatility rating for FBIO.
  The greater than 10% difference between the 3-month and 6-month stock returns has an impact on the stock volatility rating for FBIO.

FBIO Step 2: Daily Stock Volatility Level
The HV30® takes the stock's day to day historical volatility over the last 30-days and then annualizes it. The HV20 looks back over just 20-days -- a shorter time period. Here is the breakdown for Fortress Biotech Inc (NASDAQ:FBIO) and how the day-by-day stock historical volatilities have impacted the rating:

  The HV20 of 46.0% is in the middle ground, neither elevated nor depressed, so in this case the raw HV20 number has no impact on FBIO's volatility rating.


FBIO Step 3: Fortress Biotech Inc HV20 Compared to Indices
* The HV20 for FBIO is substantially larger than that for both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 which raises the volatility rating.

* The HV20 for FBIO is substantially larger than that for the Health Care ETF (XLV) which raises the volatility rating.

Here is summary data in tabular and chart format.

           FBIO
           HV20    
   S&P 500
HV20
   NASDAQ 100
HV20   
   XLV
HV20   
           46.0%    6.98%    6.07%    7.65%

FBIO Step 4: Daily Volatility Percentiles and Highs

We also examine the annual high of the HV30 in our rating.
  The 52 week high in HV30 for FBIO is 89.0%, which is high and has an upward impact on the stock volatility rating.

Here is summary data in tabular and chart format.

           FBIO
           HV20    
   FBIO
HV30
   FBIO
HV30 High   
           46.0%    50.5%    89.0%

Final Stock Volatility Percentile Level: FBIO
The final evolution of the volatility rating for Fortress Biotech Inc is a comparison of the HV30 value relative to its past, which is neatly summarized in the percentile -- a scoring mechanism that goes from a low of 1 to a high of 100.

  The HV30 percentile for Fortress Biotech Inc is 28%, which means the stock has seen low volatility in its price movement relative to its own past and that has a slightly dampening impact on the stock volatility rating.

Fortress Biotech Inc Realized Volatility Percentiles