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Option Market: Preferred Bank Risk Hits A Reduced Level




Preferred Bank (NASDAQ:PFBC) Risk Hits A Reduced Level

Date Published:

PREFACE
We're going to look at a proprietary risk rating for the next 30-days built by Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz) based on a large number of interactions of data points, many of which come directly from the option market for Preferred Bank (NASDAQ:PFBC) .

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In the "Why This Matters" section at the end of this article on Preferred Bank (NASDAQ:PFBC) we're going to take a step back and show in great specificity that there is actually a lot less "luck" in successful option trading than many people know. The whole concept of an "option trading expert" is vastly over complicated and we'll talk about how superior returns are earned.

But first, let's turn back to PFBC and the company's risk rating:

We also take a peek at the implied vol for the Financials ETF (XLF), our broad based proxy for PFBC.





SNAPSHOT SUMMARY
S&P 500 IV30     10.01%
Nasdaq 100 IV30     11.05%
XLF IV30     17.21%

PFBC HV 30     31.83%
PFBC Current IV30     28.95%
52 Week Low IV30     20.79%
52 Week High IV30     58.22%


The risk as reflected by the option market has hit a reduced level relative to the company's past. The option market reflects a 95% confidence interval stock price range of ($53.00, $60.50) within the next 30 calendar days.

While the option market risk rating is on the low side, we note that companies in this situation are still susceptible to sudden stock move risk, it's simply the probability of that large stock move is depressed. Buyers of options and volatility may find these prices more attractive than at other times.

PFBC OPTION MARKET RISK
The IV30® is the risk reflected by the option market in the stock price for the next 30 calendar days -- it's forward looking. Preferred Bank shows an IV30 of 29.0%, which is a reduced level for the company relative to its past.

The option market for PFBC has shown an IV30 annual low of 20.8% and an annual high of 58.2%, meaning that PFBC is at the 22% percentile right now. Here's a table of the data before we dig into the risk rating further.

PFBC
Current IV30    
PFBC
Low IV30    
PFBC
High IV30   
29.0% 20.8% 58.2%

The option market reflects less risk in the next 30 calendar days for Preferred Bank (NASDAQ:PFBC) than on average.
Further, if we look backwards, the stock has a realized 30-day historical volatility, called the HV30, of 31.83%.




We have a situation now where the IV30 is depressed relative to the past and at the same time the option market reflects the likelihood of a smaller stock movement in the next 30-days than the stock has realized in the last 30-days. Let's turn to a chart to see what's going on.
 
Note how similar the forward risk for Preferred Bank is priced (29.0%) compared to what happened just in the last 30-days (31.8%).

Preferred Bank Risk Rating
The PFBC risk rating is at 2.5, where the rating goes from one (the lowest risk) to five (the highest risk). The driving factors for the 2.5 rating are:

The IV30 is below the annual average.
The IV30 is below 30%.
The HV30 is above the annual average.
The stock has moved +26.1% over the last 3-months which does indicate some elevated risk.