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First Bancorp Risk Points versus Financials




First Bancorp (NASDAQ:FBNC) Risk Points versus Financials (XLF)

Date Published:


PREFACE
This is a scatter plot analysis of the critical risk points from the option market for First Bancorp (NASDAQ:FBNC) compared to its own past and the Financials ETF. In order to examine the forward looking risk for First Bancorp (NASDAQ:FBNC) the next 30-days, we must look to the option market.

Now, before we dive into the analysis on FBNC, we make one critical note since we're talking about options:



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In the "Why This Matters" section at the end of this article on First Bancorp (NASDAQ:FBNC) , we're going to take a step back and show in great specificity that there is actually a lot less "luck" in successful option trading than many people know.

But that's at the end, now let's jump back into the risk point charting and number crunching for First Bancorp (NASDAQ:FBNC) . We start by noting that FBNC is in the banks sector which means along with some other industries we also compare the company to the closest match we could find, which was the Financials ETF (XLF) as a proxy for First Bancorp.

We have highlighted the IV30® for XLF and for FBNC in the table below.


SNAPSHOT SUMMARY
CONTEXT: THE INDICES
S&P 500 (SPY) IV30     10.01%
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) IV30     11.05%
Financials ETF (XLF) IV30     17.21%
Biotech (IBB) IV30     20.12%


First Bancorp (NASDAQ:FBNC)
FBNC 52 Week Low IV30     12.07%
FBNC Current IV30     21.25%
FBNC 52 Week High IV30     74.11%

FBNC Current HV30     20.78%

First Bancorp Implied Risk Scatter Plot
(a new risk chart, built for option traders)



Scatter Plot Risk Legend
The blue point is the current 30-day implied volatility for First Bancorp.
The black point is the current 30-day implied volatility for the Financials ETF (XLF).
The red point is the 52 week low in IV30® for First Bancorp.
The green point is the 52 week high in IV30® for First Bancorp.

The various other scatter plot points in the middle give us risk context outside of the banks sector.

The IV30® is the risk reflected by the option market in the stock price for the next 30 calendar days.

* We can see that the risk as reflected by the option market for the next 30-days for First Bancorp is above all the indices we have charted including the Financials ETF (XLF).

* We can further see that the current IV30 for First Bancorp of 21.25% is closer to the annual low of 12.07% than the annual high of 74.11%. Simply stated, this means that the option market is pricing less risk than the average over the past year.

* For some context, we note that the annual range in IV30® for the Financials ETF is between [13.25%, 28.77%] while First Bancorp has had a range of [12.07%, 74.11%].

Get this same analysis on any ticker here:


A New Kind of Risk Point Chart
This is chart was developed for the trader. It allows us to easily see where the forward looking risk for First Bancorp (NASDAQ:FBNC) lies relative to the last year, and the various major stock groupings and the Banks sector without using time series data, which can confuse the information.