Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) Risk Hits A Depressed LevelDate Published: 2017-02-10
We're going to look at a proprietary risk rating for the next 30-days built by Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz) based on a large number of interactions of data points, many of which come directly from the option market for Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) .
Option trading isn't about luck -- this three minute video will change your trading life forever: Option Trading and Truth
In the "Why This Matters" section at the end of this article on Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) we're going to take a step back and show in great specificity that there is actually a lot less "luck" in successful option trading than many people know. The whole concept of an "option trading expert" is vastly over complicated and we'll talk about how superior returns are earned.
But first, let's turn back to AMZN and the company's risk rating:
We also take a peek at the implied vol for the Technology ETF (XLK), our broad based proxy for AMZN.
|S&P 500 IV30||8.99%|
|Nasdaq 100 IV30||10.19%|
|AMZN HV 30||19.54%|
|AMZN Current IV30||16.53%|
|52 Week Low IV30||15.41%|
|52 Week High IV30||47.3%|
The risk as reflected by the option market has hit a depressed level relative to the company's past. The option market reflects a 95% confidence interval stock price range of ($790.30, $852.40) within the next 30 calendar days.
While the option market risk rating is on the low side, we note that companies in this situation are still susceptible to sudden stock move risk, it's simply the probability of that large stock move is depressed. Buyers of options and volatility may find these prices more attractive than at other times.
AMZN OPTION MARKET RISK
The IV30® is the risk reflected by the option market in the stock price for the next 30 calendar days -- it's forward looking. Amazon.com Inc shows an IV30 of 16.5%, which is a depressed level for the company relative to its past.
The option market for AMZN has shown an IV30 annual low of 15.4% and an annual high of 47.3%, meaning that AMZN is at the 4% percentile right now. Here's a table of the data before we dig into the risk rating further.
The option market reflects extremeley less risk in the next 30 calendar days for Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) than on average.
We have a situation now where the IV30 is extremely depressed relative to the past and that has resulted in a risk pricing that reflects less stock movement in the next 30-days than it has seen in the last 30-days. Let's turn to a chart to see what's going on.
Amazon.com Inc Risk Rating
The AMZN risk rating is at 1.5, where the rating goes from one (the lowest risk) to five (the highest risk). The driving factors for the 1.5 rating are:
↪ The IV30 is below the 20th percentile.
↪ The IV30 is below 30%.
↪ The HV30 is below the 20th percentile.
↪ The HV30 is below 30%.
↪ The IV30 is below the HV30.
↪ The stock has moved +10.6% over the last 3-months which does indicate some elevated risk.