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Bel Fuse Inc Price Volatility Hits An Escalated Level




Bel Fuse Inc (NASDAQ:BELFB) Price Volatility Hits An Escalated Level

Date Published:

PREFACE
This is a proprietary realized volatility rating created by Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz) based on a large number of data interactions for Bel Fuse Inc (NASDAQ:BELFB) . We examine the little used gem of daily stock volatility over a 20-day and 30-day trading period, as well as comparisons to the last year and the actual stock returns over the last three- and six-months and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices.

As a heads up, in the "Why This Matters" section at the end of this article on Bel Fuse Inc (NASDAQ:BELFB) , we're going to take a step back and show really clearly that there is actually a lot less "luck" in successful option trading than most people are aware of. This idea of an "option trading expert" is vastly over complicated so those with the information advantage can continue to profit at the expense of the rest.

But before that, let's turn back to BELFB. This is a four step process for computing the realized volatility risk. Here we go.

BELFB Recent Price Volatility


Rating
Price volatility using proprietary measures has hit an escalated level.

Note
Even though Bel Fuse Inc generates substantial revenue, its a small cap technology company which means BELFB is susceptible to excessive risk.

Losses
We also note that BELFB has negative GAAP earnings in the last year which makes it ever more susceptible to stock volatility. Here is a rolling annual volatility chart of the biotech index (IBB) versus the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500. Note how elevated the technology sector volatility is (the yellow curve) relative to the S&P 500.



Let's take a deep dive into some institutional level volatility measures for Bel Fuse Inc (NASDAQ:BELFB) .

Bel Fuse Inc Stock Performance
BELFB is up +30.5% over the last three months and up +70.3% over the last six months. The stock price is up +113.2% over the last year. The current stock price is $31.85.

BELFB Step 1: Stock Returns
The one-year stock return does not impact the volatility rating since we are looking at a shorter time horizon. However, the rating does examine the 3-month returns and the absolute difference between the 3-month and 6-month returns.

  The 3-month stock return of +30.5% has a substantial impact on the price volatility rating for BELFB.
  The noteworthy difference between the 3-month and 6-month stock returns has a meaningful impact on the price volatility rating for BELFB.

BELFB Step 2: Daily Price Volatility Level
The HV30® takes the stock's day to day historical volatility over the last 30-days and then annualizes it. The HV20 looks back over just 20-days -- a shorter time period. Here is the breakdown for Bel Fuse Inc (NASDAQ:BELFB) and how the day-by-day price historical volatilities have impacted the rating:

  The HV20 of 29.2% is low enough that it has a downward impact on BELFB's volatility rating.


BELFB Step 3: Bel Fuse Inc HV20 Compared to Indices
* The HV20 for BELFB is substantially larger than that for both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 which raises the volatility rating.

* The HV20 for BELFB is substantially larger than that for the Technology ETF (XLK) which raises the volatility rating.

Here is summary data in tabular and chart format.

           BELFB
           HV20    
   S&P 500
HV20
   NASDAQ 100
HV20   
   XLK
HV20   
           29.2%    6.11%    7.72%    7.17%

BELFB Step 4: Daily Volatility Percentiles and Highs

We also examine the annual high of the HV30 in our rating.
  The 52 week high in HV30 for BELFB is 63.3%, which is high and has an upward impact on the price volatility rating.

Here is summary data in tabular and chart format.

           BELFB
           HV20    
   BELFB
HV30
   BELFB
HV30 High   
           29.2%    46.7%    63.3%

Final Price Volatility Percentile Level: BELFB
The final evolution of the volatility rating for Bel Fuse Inc is a comparison of the HV30 value relative to its past, which is neatly summarized in the percentile -- a scoring mechanism that goes from a low of 1 to a high of 100.

  The HV30 percentile for Bel Fuse Inc is 62%, which means the stock has seen elevated volatile price movement relative to its own past and that has a small impact on the price volatility rating.

Bel Fuse Inc Realized Volatility Percentiles