Option Market: Apple Inc Risk Hits A Substantially Lowered Level

Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) Risk Hits A Substantially Lowered Level

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We're going to look at a proprietary risk rating for the next 30-days built by Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz) based on a large number of interactions of data points, many of which come directly from the option market for Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) .

In the "Why This Matters" section at the end of this article on Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) we're going to take a step back and show in great specificity that there is actually a lot less "luck" in successful option trading than many people know. The whole concept of an "option trading expert" is vastly over complicated and we'll talk about how superior returns are earned.

But first, let's turn back to AAPL and the company's risk rating:

We also take a peek at the implied vol for the Technology ETF (XLK), our broad based proxy for AAPL.

S&P 500 IV30     9.54%
Nasdaq 100 IV30     12.67%
XLK IV30     13.11%

AAPL HV 30     11.04%
AAPL Current IV30     22.26%
52 Week Low IV30     15.41%
52 Week High IV30     42.27%

The risk as reflected by the option market has hit a substantially lowered level relative to the company's past. The option market reflects a 95% confidence interval stock price range of ($112.90, $125.00) within the next 30 calendar days.

While the option market risk rating is on the low side, we note that companies in this situation are still susceptible to sudden stock move risk, it's simply the probability of that large stock move is depressed. Buyers of options and volatility may find these prices more attractive than at other times.

The IV30® is the risk reflected by the option market in the stock price for the next 30 calendar days -- it's forward looking. Apple Inc shows an IV30 of 22.3%, which is a substantially lowered level for the company relative to its past.

The option market for AAPL has shown an IV30 annual low of 15.4% and an annual high of 42.3%, meaning that AAPL is at the 26% percentile right now. Here's a table of the data before we dig into the risk rating further.

Current IV30    
Low IV30    
High IV30   
22.3% 15.4% 42.3%

The option market reflects less risk in the next 30 calendar days for Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) than on average. Further, if we look backwards, the stock has a realized 30-day historical volatility, called the HV30, of 11.04%.

We have an unusual situation now where the IV30 is depressed relative to the past, but even with that risk pricing, the option market reflects the likelihood of a greater stock movement in the next 30-days than the stock has realized in the last 30-days. Let's turn to a chart to see what's going on.
Note how much higher the forward looking risk for Apple Inc is priced (22.3%) compared to what happened just in the last 30-days (11.0%).

Apple Inc Risk Rating
The AAPL risk rating is at 2, where the rating goes from one (the lowest risk) to five (the highest risk). The driving factors for the 2 rating are:

The IV30 is below the annual average.
The IV30 is below 30%.
The HV30 is below the 20th percentile.
The HV30 is below 30%.
The IV30 is above the HV30.