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Ameresco Inc Realized Volatility Hits A Substantially Lowered Level




Ameresco Inc (NYSE:AMRC) Realized Volatility Hits A Substantially Lowered Level

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PREFACE
This is a proprietary realized volatility rating created by Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz) based on a large number of data interactions for Ameresco Inc (NYSE:AMRC) . We examine the little used gem of daily stock volatility over a 20-day and 30-day trading period, as well as comparisons to the last year and the actual stock returns over the last three- and six-months and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices.

As a heads up, in the "Why This Matters" section at the end of this article on Ameresco Inc (NYSE:AMRC) , we're going to take a step back and show really clearly that there is actually a lot less "luck" in successful option trading than most people are aware of. This idea of an "option trading expert" is vastly over complicated so those with the information advantage can continue to profit at the expense of the rest.

But before that, let's turn back to AMRC. This is a four step process for computing the realized volatility risk. Here we go.

AMRC Recent Realized Volatility


Rating
Realized volatility using proprietary measures has hit a substantially lowered level. While stocks with AMRC's profile see a short-term quiet period, this is also one of those times when a shake out volatility move could be on the horizon. To that point, we do note that AMRC is showing unusally low volatility in the last month relative to its past. Let's take a deep dive into some institutional level volatility measures for Ameresco Inc (NYSE:AMRC) .

Ameresco Inc Stock Performance
AMRC is up +5.2% over the last three months and up +8.5% over the last six months. The stock has returned -8.1% over the last year. The current stock price is $5.25.

AMRC Step 1: Stock Returns
The one-year stock return does not impact the volatility rating since we are looking at a shorter time horizon. However, the rating does examine the 3-month returns and the absolute difference between the 3-month and 6-month returns.

  The 3-month stock return of +5.2% is too small to impact the realized volatility rating for AMRC.
  The small difference between the 3-month and 6-month stock returns does not impact the realized volatility rating for AMRC.

AMRC Step 2: Daily Realized Volatility Level
The HV30® takes the stock's day to day historical volatility over the last 30-days and then annualizes it. The HV20 looks back over just 20-days -- a shorter time period. Here is the breakdown for Ameresco Inc (NYSE:AMRC) and how the day-by-day realized historical volatilities have impacted the rating:

  The HV20 of 34.8% is in the middle ground, neither elevated nor depressed, so in this case the raw HV20 number has no impact on AMRC's volatility rating.


AMRC Step 3: Ameresco Inc HV20 Compared to Indices
* The HV20 for AMRC is substantially larger than that for both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 which raises the volatility rating.

* The HV20 for AMRC is substantially larger than that for the Industrials ETF (XLI) which raises the volatility rating.

Here is summary data in tabular and chart format.

           AMRC
           HV20    
   S&P 500
HV20
   NASDAQ 100
HV20   
   XLI
HV20   
           34.8%    7.19%    9.37%    8.08%

AMRC Step 4: Daily Volatility Percentiles and Highs

We also examine the annual high of the HV30 in our rating.
  The 52 week high in HV30 for AMRC is 96.4%, which is high and has an upward impact on the realized volatility rating.

Here is summary data in tabular and chart format.

           AMRC
           HV20    
   AMRC
HV30
   AMRC
HV30 High   
           34.8%    30.0%    96.4%

Final Realized Volatility Percentile Level: AMRC
The final evolution of the volatility rating for Ameresco Inc is a comparison of the HV30 value relative to its past, which is neatly summarized in the percentile -- a scoring mechanism that goes from a low of 1 to a high of 100.

  The HV30 percentile for Ameresco Inc is 5%, which means the stock has seen very low volatility in its price movement relative to its own past and that has a dampening impact on the realized volatility rating.

Ameresco Inc Realized Volatility Percentiles